{"id":258784,"date":"2024-09-06T23:34:53","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T23:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/06\/business-cycle-indicators-and-the-employment-release\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:29","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:29","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-and-the-employment-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/06\/business-cycle-indicators-and-the-employment-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value<\/a>, we\u2019re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 2nd release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (9\/3\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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