{"id":258247,"date":"2024-09-04T04:51:47","date_gmt":"2024-09-04T04:51:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/04\/peter-schiff-on-recession-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:35","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:35","slug":"peter-schiff-on-recession-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/04\/peter-schiff-on-recession-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Peter Schiff on Recession | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Peter Schiff<\/a> today:<\/p>\n

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This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than expected, while July construction spending unexpectedly fell. It\u2019s becoming clear the <\/span>#economy<\/a><\/span> is entering a <\/span>#recession<\/a><\/span> just as <\/span>#inflation<\/a><\/span> is poised to turn higher.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bloomberg indicates manufacturing PMI was 47.9 vs consensus 48, ISM manufacturing was 47.2 vs. 47.5 consensus. Over the last year, the standard deviation of forecast errors is 0.5, so the -0.3 surprise is not statistically significantly different from average surprise of 0.17. Construction spending was down 0.3% m\/m vs +0.1% consensus. The standard deviation of errors is 0.4 ppts, so once again the drop is within one standard deviation and not statistically significantly different from zero.<\/p>\n

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As for construction spending:<\/p>\n

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Goldman Sachs comments:<\/p>\n

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. Nominal construction spending decreased by 0.3% (mom sa) in July, against expectations for a 0.1% increase. Spending growth was revised up in June (+0.3pp to flat) and May (+0.6pp to +0.2%). Private construction spending declined by 0.4% in July, as private residential spending (-0.4%) and private nonresidential spending (-0.4%) both decreased. Public construction spending edged up in July (+0.1%), reflecting an increase in public nonresidential spending (+0.2%) but a decrease in public residential spending (-2.6%). Construction costs increased by 0.6% in July (mom sa, Census measure), indicating that construction spending decreased 0.9% in real terms.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Maybe recession is coming. Not sure these releases a persuasive. Note: Mr. Schiff has been predicting recession since November 2023<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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