{"id":257564,"date":"2024-08-28T21:26:57","date_gmt":"2024-08-28T21:26:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/28\/brad-setser-on-chinas-true-trade-balance\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:11:41","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:11:41","slug":"brad-setser-on-chinas-true-trade-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/28\/brad-setser-on-chinas-true-trade-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"Brad Setser on China\u2019s True Trade Balance"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Brad Setser<\/a> has been diligently cross-checking the external accounts of China. For purposes of thinking about how policymakers are trying to snatch aggregate demand across borders, the trade balance is key.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> Setser\/CFR<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

This means that as of Q2, China\u2019s trade surplus might be as much as 50% larger than BoP statistics indicate. Note that focusing on dollar terms might be particularly misleading if export prices are falling. Import prices of goods from China have fallen about 4% since April of 2022 (through July 2024). This doesn\u2019t seem like a big drop, but then the core PPI has risen by about 6.4% over that same period.<\/p>\n

So, expect more stress on global imbalances\u2026<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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