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Goldman Sachs<\/a> Group Inc. economists lowered the probability of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25%, citing this week\u2019s retail sales and jobless claims data.<\/p>\n If the August jobs report set for release on Sept. 6 \u201clooks reasonably good, we would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year\u201d before a revision on Aug. 2, the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Saturday.<\/p>\n A flurry of data showing US economic resilience drove stocks to their best week this year, with dip buyers stepping in after a recent rout. The value of retail sales increased in July by the most since early 2023. Separate government figures showed the fewest\u00a0applications<\/a>\u00a0for unemployment benefits last week since early July.<\/p>\n Goldman economists also said they have become \u201cmore confident\u201d the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September policy meeting, \u201calthough another downside jobs surprise on September 6 could still trigger a 50bp move.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\nRecommended Newsletter: <\/strong>CEO Daily provides key context for the news leaders need to know from across the world of business. Every weekday morning, more than 125,000 readers trust CEO Daily for insights about\u2013and from inside\u2013the C-suite. Subscribe Now<\/a>.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n