If you\u2019re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around\u2026<\/p>\n
Source:<\/strong> Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor \u2013 Still no sign of a recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n I\u2019m not sure about the exact ensemble of models used, but apparently they use \u201cmultivariate probit models with sentiment-based, macroeconomic, and financial indicators to provide a more robust signal of potential recessions.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n Both series are below thresholds.<\/p>\n I found even more interesting their heat map:<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor \u2013 Still no sign of a recession, Oxford Economics, 6 August 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n There is a strong divergence between New orders, the 10yr-3mo spread, and \u2014 to a lesser extent longer term unemployed \u2014 versus all else. Note that their heat map does not include unemployment, or a series that looks like the Sahm rule<\/a> (which Sahm intended as a coincident<\/em><\/strong> \u2014 not leading \u2014 indicator).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OxfordEcon_6aug24_rec6mo.png\")
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