{"id":253390,"date":"2024-08-11T22:14:05","date_gmt":"2024-08-11T22:14:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/11\/august-survey-of-professional-forecasters-gdp\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:12:34","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:12:34","slug":"august-survey-of-professional-forecasters-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/11\/august-survey-of-professional-forecasters-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"August Survey of Professional Forecasters: GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Continued growth:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (bold red), July WSJ (teal), GDPNow of 8\/8 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, WSJ survey, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The NY Fed nowcast for Q3 is slightly lower (2.24% vs. 2.9%).<\/p>\n

The survey indicates 16% and 21% mean probabilities of a negative quarter in 2024Q3 and 2024Q4 respectively. For the 1967-2024 to date period, the proportion quarters experiencing negative growth is about 14%.<\/p>\n

As noted here<\/a>, only two people in the WSJ<\/em> July survey indicated two consecutive quarters of negative growth.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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