{"id":253194,"date":"2024-08-10T17:22:44","date_gmt":"2024-08-10T17:22:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/10\/prediction-markets-rcp-average-flips\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:12:36","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:12:36","slug":"prediction-markets-rcp-average-flips","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/10\/prediction-markets-rcp-average-flips\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets: RCP Average Flips"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-53196\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>The RealClearPolitics betting average has typically lagged PredictIt, which flipped on 7\/31. RCP\u2019s betting average flipped on August 8, and now looks like this (approx 11:24 CT):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-53197\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"798\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24.png 798w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24-768x414.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24-624x336.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 798px) 100vw, 798px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/betting-odds\/2024\/president\">RCP<\/a>, accessed 8\/10\/2024, 11:20am CT.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The above depicts time series of unweighted averages. Here\u2019s the individual platform data as of latest:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24_tab.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-53198\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24_tab.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1200\" height=\"331\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24_tab.png 1200w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24_tab-300x83.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24_tab-1024x282.png 1024w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24_tab-768x212.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/RCP_10aug24_tab-624x172.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/betting-odds\/2024\/president\">RCP<\/a>, accessed 8\/10\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Note the low for Harris is from Polymarket (mentioned in<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/newsletters\/2024-07-31\/what-betting-markets-like-polymarket-predictit-tell-us-about-2024-election\"> Bloomberg<\/a>), while the highest for Trump is Bovada and Bwin. Highest for Harris is is PredictIt. Of these, only PredictIt is legally accessible to US residents (as I understand it). If you\u2019ve ever talked to (even a well-informed) foreigner about US politics, you might appreciate the greater information set a typical American has relative to a typical foreigner (no aspersions cast: a typical German has a much much better appreciation of a German politics than a typical American, even one who has spent better part of a year in the country).<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/08\/prediction-markets-rcp-average-flips\" title=\"10:12 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-08-10T10:12:32-07:00\">August 10, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/08\/prediction-markets-rcp-average-flips\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] The RealClearPolitics betting average has typically lagged PredictIt, which flipped on 7\/31. RCP\u2019s betting average flipped on August 8, and now looks like this<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":253195,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253194"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=253194"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/253194\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/253195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=253194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=253194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=253194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}