NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators:<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (8\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (blue), civilian employment adjusted to CBO estimated immigration (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), retail sales in 1999M12$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and coincident index (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. 2024Q2 GDO uses estimated GDI. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, Philadelphia Fed<\/em>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong>\u00a0WEI (blue), WECI plus 2% (tan), in %. Source: NY Fed via FRED,\u00a0Baumeister et al.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n For a longer term perspective, across macro aggregates:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/recindex_jul24.png\")
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