{"id":248120,"date":"2024-07-26T15:55:53","date_gmt":"2024-07-26T15:55:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/26\/business-cycle-indicators-at-julys-end\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:13:51","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:13:51","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-at-julys-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/26\/business-cycle-indicators-at-julys-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators at July\u2019s End"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-52993\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m\/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here\u2019s the picture of key NBER BCDC indicators plus monthly GDP:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24e.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52994\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24e.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24e.png 820w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24e-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24e-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24e-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em><em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/07\/52993\" title=\"8:19 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-07-26T08:19:11-07:00\">July 26, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/07\/52993\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m\/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here\u2019s the picture of key NBER BCDC indicators plus monthly GDP:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":248121,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248120"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=248120"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/248120\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/248121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=248120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=248120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=248120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}