Most recent forecasts indicate no recession<\/a>, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow<\/a>, NY Fed<\/a>), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock<\/a>; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims<\/a>) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates (orange), manufacturing production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Federal Reserve via FRED, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Note that the adjusted civilian employment series<\/a> flattens out because it\u2019s assumed that immigration matches what is incorporated in the BLS series starting in July 2023.<\/p>\n Compare against the NBER BCDC indicators.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindic_jun24alt1.png\")
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