From DWD today:<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (pink), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (gray), all in 000\u2019s, s.a. Source: DWD, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>,\u00a0WI DoR<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Wisconsin civilian employment (black), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (red), all in 000\u2019s, s.a. Source: DWD, WI DoR<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n On the CES employment count (more reliable than the household CPS count, at the state level), employment is beating the June DoR forecast.<\/p>\n Below, I show the latest data on Wisconsin macro aggregates.<\/p>\n Figure 3:<\/strong>\u00a0Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed\u00a0[1]<\/a>,\u00a0[2]<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Hence, by most counts, Wisconsin\u2019s economy is at the aggregate level doing well. However, recent journalistic accounts have focused on a sour mood (Niquette\/Bloomberg<\/a>):<\/p>\n \u00a0\u2026a Bloomberg News\/Morning Consult poll<\/a>\u00a0this month found 62% of Wisconsin voters think the state\u2019s economy is on the wrong track, and 72% think the US economy is headed in the wrong direction.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n On the other hand, the modal response on the state of the economy seems to be ranked as \u201cgood\u201d.\u00a0From a Marquette Law School poll, June 12-20:<\/p>\n Figure 4:<\/strong> Percent of likely voter respondents to the question \u201cHow would you describe the state of Wisconsin\u2019s economy these days?\u201d Source:<\/strong> Marquette Law School Poll<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n There is a partisan divide on this point, though.<\/p>\n Figure 5:<\/strong> Percent of likely voter respondents to the question \u201cHow would you describe the state of Wisconsin\u2019s economy these days?\u201d, by party affiliation. Source:<\/strong> Marquette Law School Poll<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/wiemployment_jun.png\")
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