WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday:<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP as reported (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), CBO June projection (blue), IMF WEO July forecast (red square), and GDPNow of 7\/17 (light blue square). Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release, July WSJ survey<\/a>, IMF WEO July update<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Interestingly, the CBO forecast from June is above the 20% trimmed high (for 2024 q4\/q4) for the WSJ survey:<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> GDP as reported (bold black), WSJ July survey mean (tan), 20% trimmed hi\/low range based on 2024 q4\/q4 growth (gray lines), and GDPNow of 7\/17 (light blue square). Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release, July WSJ survey<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n GDPNow as of 7\/17 is registering a 2.7% q\/q AR growth rate in Q2, on target for hitting the CBO projection. Interestingly, the IMF and CBO trajectories match pretty well through 2025Q4.<\/p>\n In terms of recession predictions, the estimated probability of a recession in the next 12 months has dropped one percentage point, to 28%. On a related point, only two respondents (out of 68 for GDP growth) forecast two consecutive quarters of negative growth: Nicholas Van Ness (Credit Agricole CIB), and Andrew Hollenhorst\/Veronica Clark (Citigroup). In the April survey, 5 respondents were in this group (Van Ness is the one overlap).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/gdppix_jul24.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n