{"id":244624,"date":"2024-07-17T19:40:55","date_gmt":"2024-07-17T19:40:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/17\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-july-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:14:32","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:14:32","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-july-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/17\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-july-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Industrial production at +0.6% m\/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52878\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24-624x398.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em><em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Normalized to April 2023:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24b.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52879\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24b.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24b.png 820w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24b-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24b-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24b-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em><em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Alternative indicators for output, employment:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24alt-1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52880\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24alt-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24alt-1.png 820w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24alt-1-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24alt-1-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_jun24alt-1-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 3:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (bold dark blue), civilian employment adjusted to CBO immigration (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em><em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>GDPNow revised up to 2.7% in Q2.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/07\/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-july-2024\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Industrial production at +0.6% m\/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus). Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue),<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":244625,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244624"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=244624"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/244624\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/244625"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=244624"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=244624"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=244624"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}