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The stock market rallied on Monday after the assassination attempt<\/a> on former President Donald Trump, as investors priced in greater odds<\/a> of his victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n Analysts have taken to calling this the \u201cTrump trade<\/a>,\u201d a reference to all the asset classes expected to perform better should he take office. Even before Saturday\u2019s assassination attempt, investors expected certain assets like cryptocurrencies<\/a>, the dollar<\/a>, and some oil stocks<\/a> to benefit from a second Trump presidency\u2014and now Wall Street seems to be forecasting<\/a> with much greater conviction<\/a> that he will win the election.\u00a0<\/p>\n But Monday\u2019s rally doesn\u2019t signal markets are in the clear, according to one analyst. <\/p>\n \u201cHistory teaches instead that lengthy periods of political violence in democratic societies are very bad<\/em> for markets and risk-taking,\u201d Macquarie Global FX & Rates Strategist Thierry Wizman wrote in a note published Monday morning.\u00a0<\/p>\n He cited the examples of Italy\u2019s Years of Lead, which lasted from 1968 to the mid-1980s, and the Troubles in Northern Ireland that spanned from the late 1960s to 1998. The Years of Lead<\/a> in Italy featured prolonged political strife between neofascist and communist terrorist groups that included multiple bombings as well as the kidnapping and assassination of Prime Minister Aldo Moro in 1978. The conflict<\/a> in Northern Ireland saw Protestants and Catholics embroiled<\/a> in guerrilla warfare that claimed 3,600 lives over whether to remain part of the United Kingdom.\u00a0<\/p>\n Ultimately, both of those violent periods were characterized by reduced investment, brain drains as talented individuals left for professional opportunities abroad, and reductions in tourism, according to Wizman.\u00a0<\/p>\n If political violence continues here, foreign investors would think twice about the U.S. \u201cFrom the perspective of an outsider, it would simply not be as amenable a place to invest and build businesses in anymore,\u201d he told Fortune<\/em> in an interview.\u00a0<\/p>\n And because the U.S. is the world\u2019s largest economy, any problems it faces would have much broader global implications than those of Northern Ireland and Italy. If the U.S. economy took a hit because of ongoing political violence, it would \u201cspill over to the rest of the world,\u201d affecting worldwide trade, the global defense industry, and the protection of international law, according to Wizman.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re the largest developed, democratic country and economy, so there really isn\u2019t any precedent here,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n The U.S. economy is also facing stubborn inflation, which could be exacerbated by political violence, Wizman added.\u00a0<\/p>\n The market has long expected that a Trump win in the election would be inflationary, fed by another likely round of corporate tax cuts<\/a>, tariffs<\/a> on all foreign goods, and deregulation<\/a>. That\u2019s been reflected in rising Treasury yields everytime Trump appears to get an electoral boost, as he did after Saturday\u2019s assassination attempt. On Monday, 30-year Treasury yields reached the same level as 2-year bonds, with both now hovering around 4.46%, Wizman wrote in his note. Bond yields also went up after the June presidential debate, when President Joe Biden had a historically poor performance, which increased the likelihood of a Trump victory<\/a> in November.\u00a0<\/p>\n Wizman does make sure to point out that bond yields rising is a result of Trump\u2019s favorable electoral chances, not due to the possibility of political violence. In fact, bond prices tend to go up\u2014and therefore yields down\u2014during periods of political unrest<\/a> because investors flock to them<\/a> as relatively safe assets.\u00a0<\/p>\n In the aftermath of the assassination attempt, political leaders have stressed national unity. President Biden addressed the nation twice over the weekend, on Saturday<\/a> a few hours after the attack on Trump, and again on Sunday in an address<\/a> from the Oval Office. \u201cHere in America, while unity is the most elusive of goals right now, nothing is more important for us now than standing together,\u201d Biden said on Sunday.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n