China q\/q and y\/y GDP below consensus, +0.7% vs +1.1% cons,\u00a0 +4.7%\u00a0 vs. +5.1% cons (Bloomberg).<\/p>\n
Here\u2019re q\/q (not annualized) rates:<\/p>\n
Source:<\/strong>\u00a0 NBS via TradingEconomics.com.<\/em><\/p>\n From Bloomberg<\/a>:<\/p>\n Gross domestic product expanded 4.7% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, weaker than all except one of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Retail sales rose at the slowest monthly pace since December 2022, showing a flurry of government efforts to juice confidence have done little to reinvigorate the Chinese consumer.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Here are pictures of additional series:<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Recently at a WEF event (aka \u201csummer Davos\u201d), Premier Li Qiang signalled that no shock therapy would be forthcoming (FT<\/a>):<\/span><\/p>\n In the wake of the pandemic, China\u2019s economy was like a patient recovering from a serious illness, Li said. \u201cAccording to Chinese medical theory, at this time, we cannot use strong medicine. We should precisely adjust and slowly nurture [the economy], allowing the body to gradually recover\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Natixis urges us to focus not on short run wiggles, but the trend decline in growth and in inflation, with y\/y nominal GDP growth at +4%, (as compared to real at +4.7%). Note that June CPI decreased at 0.2% m\/m.<\/p>\n As a personal aside, I\u2019m dubious about the efficacy of \u201cChinese medicine\u201d if by this term one means the traditional herbs and roots (and other things you don\u2019t want to hear too much about) used in the past. I\u2019d say some strong medicine is needed, although my definition of strong medicine likely differs from that forwarded by the CCP leadership. My definition includes a move away from the increasingly dirigiste and state owned enterprise centered approach, so that policy uncertainty is stabilized for an extended period.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/CN_GDP_Growth_Rate_15jul24.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n\n
<\/a><\/p>\n\n