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The Chicago Board Options Exchange on Monday filed paperwork asking the Securities and Exchange Commission to list two new crypto offerings: the VanEck Solana Trust<\/a> and the 21Shares Core Solana ETF<\/a>. The move is an attempt to offer a third cryptocurrency\u2014Solana\u2014in the form of an ETF, following the SEC\u2019s approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January, and ahead of Ethereum ETFs<\/a>, which are expected to debut in coming weeks.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are now addressing the increasing investor interest in Solana\u2014the third most actively traded cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ether,\u201d Rob Marrocco, global head of ETP listings at Cboe Global Markets<\/a>, said in a statement.<\/p>\n The listings will depend on the regulator\u2019s approval of the issuers\u2019 respective S-1 filings\u2014the forms public companies are required to submit when launching a new security\u2014both filed at the end of June.<\/p>\n Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg\u2019s senior ETF analyst, has predicted<\/a> that trading may begin July 18.\u00a0So, with hedge funds managers, brokerages and financial advisors just days away from gaining access to a second cryptocurrencies via an ETFs, issuers are wasting no time in looking ahead to what may be next.<\/p>\n Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most imp date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything poss. https:\/\/t.co\/ywkf6oA8Rc<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 8, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n <\/p>\n But getting Solana ETFs over the line will be an entirely new type of battle, sources told Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n \u201cAs is, the [Solana application] is very unlikely to get approved,\u201d a source close to the matter told Fortune<\/em> who requested anonymity due to company policy. That\u2019s because the current SEC administration has set a de facto precedent of requiring a regulated futures market for the underlying asset\u2014and a correlation between that and the spot market\u2014for an ETF approval. While Bitcoin and Ether have such markets\u2014the CME Group<\/a> launched Bitcoin futures in 2017, and for Ether in 2021\u2014 Solana and subsequent cryptocurrencies do not.\u00a0<\/p>\n So, why spend millions of dollars in legal fees to launch ETF applications, with low approval odds? In short: the election.<\/p>\n Once the SEC confirms receipt of the CBOE application\u2014which typically occurs within 15 days of filing\u2014it has 240 days to make a decision, meaning the regulator has a deadline of mid-March. Based on historical behavior, the regulator is likely to leave a ruling to the final hour. So, that means if President Joe Biden loses the presidential election in November\u2014an outcome that is currently most likely, according to polls<\/a>\u2014the decision will be in the hands of Donald Trump\u2019s administration. Trump has been increasingly bullish on crypto over recent months, touting himself as the \u201ccrypto president,\u201d Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n This is \u201clargely a bet\u201d on Trump winning the election, James Seyffart, Bloomberg\u2019s ETF research analyst, told Fortune<\/em>. Echoing this sentiment: While mid-March may be the SEC\u2019s official deadline, \u201cbetween now and then the most important date is in November. If Biden wins, these are likely DOA [dead on arrival]. If Trump wins, anything is possible,\u201d Bloomberg\u2019s Balchunas posted on X<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n But regardless of the election outcome, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, told Fortune<\/em> he\u2019s optimistic about an approval. That\u2019s because the SEC\u2019s hostility towards proof-of-stake coins has been \u201cwhittled away\u201d by its approval of the Ether ETFs, he says.<\/p>\n But if Biden is re-elected, issuers will likely face the daunting task of challenging the SEC\u2019s prerequisite of a futures market to show correlation. In lieu of this, VanEck is reportedly constructing a legal case for why this burden need not be required. \u201cWe\u2019re working on that now\u2014it\u2019s being formulated and brainstormed,\u201d the unnamed sourced said. Thus, if Biden wins, it\u2019s not \u201cdead in the water,\u201d which is one of the reasons why VanEck decided to file, they said.\u00a0<\/p>\n In addition, regardless of a Republican administration, Sigel believes there is a changing atmosphere on Capitol Hill in favor of crypto, giving VanEck \u201cfurther confidence\u201d of the chances of a Solana approval. <\/p>\n \u201cI doubt that Elizabeth Warren\u2019s control over the financial services sector will endure into 2025. I predict her \u201canti-crypto Army\u201d will be routed, and a Solana ETF will trade,\u201d says Sigel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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