{"id":240532,"date":"2024-07-07T08:14:47","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T08:14:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/07\/nvidia-will-win-the-race-to-a-4-trillion-market-cap-experts-say\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:15:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:15:19","slug":"nvidia-will-win-the-race-to-a-4-trillion-market-cap-experts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/07\/nvidia-will-win-the-race-to-a-4-trillion-market-cap-experts-say\/","title":{"rendered":"Nvidia will win the race to a $4 trillion market cap, experts say"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/GettyImages-2155386328-e1720195643412.jpg?w=2048\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A surprisingly resilient economy and profit-filled <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/06\/04\/fortune-500-analytics-microsoft-nvidia-ai-banks-interest-rates-profitability-market-capitalization\/\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/06\/04\/fortune-500-analytics-microsoft-nvidia-ai-banks-interest-rates-profitability-market-capitalization\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">AI boom<\/a> are driving the United States\u2019 big tech giants toward a milestone that would have seemed impossible just a few decades ago. <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/nvidia\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/nvidia\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">Nvidia<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/microsoft\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/microsoft\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">Microsoft<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/apple\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/apple\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">Apple<\/a> have all surpassed the $3 trillion market capitalization mark, and <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/alphabet\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/alphabet\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">Google<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/amazon-com\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/amazon-com\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">Amazon<\/a> are following close behind in the $2 trillion range.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Combined, these five tech giants alone are now worth more than $14.5 trillion and make up roughly 32% of the S&amp;P 500. For reference, in 2002, after the dot-com bubble burst, the total market capitalization of every U.S. stock was $11.1 trillion, according to Siblis Research <a href=\"https:\/\/siblisresearch.com\/data\/us-stock-market-value\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/siblisresearch.com\/data\/us-stock-market-value\/\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\">data<\/a>. Big tech\u2019s performance has been particularly impressive this year, with Nvidia, for example, surging from a $2 trillion market cap to a $3 trillion market cap in under 100 days.<\/p>\n<p>That begs the question: which tech giant will hit the next big milestone, $4 trillion in market cap, first? Some bears argue that big tech companies\u2019 record run of performance can\u2019t continue forever, given their elevated valuations and the slowing economy, while the bulls believe this is just the beginning of a streak of AI-induced wins for big tech.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think, a year from now, we [will] have three $4 trillion market cap companies: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft,\u201d Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives told <em>Fortune<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>He argued that many of his peers on Wall Street continue to underestimate the AI revolution and the health of the U.S. economy. \u201cUnless you have a telescope, you can\u2019t find a recession. And the Fed? Their next move is a cut not a hike. So, to me, all signs are bullish,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s 9 pm, and the party goes to 4 am\u2026the haters will hate, continuing to say that this is a bubble.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\">\n<p><iframe class=\"\" aria-label=\"Bar Chart\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-vEIJt\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"231\" loading=\"lazy\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/vEIJt\/3\/\" style=\"border:none\" title=\"Big tech keeps getting bigger\" width=\"100%\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nvidia<\/h2>\n<p>There are, of course, a wide range of views on where big tech companies are headed, but many experts are convinced that chip giant Nvidia will be the first to reach the $4 trillion market cap mark, driven by the seemingly unending thirst for its AI-enabling hardware.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe first one to get there is likely to be the godfather of AI Jensen [Huang] and Nvidia, because they\u2019re the only game in town\u2014their GPUs are the new oil or gold in the tech world with no real competition,\u201d Ives said.<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia stock has surged roughly 160% year to date and more than 3,000% over the past five years. That\u2019s led some analysts to warn that the tech giant\u2019s valuation has become stretched, and doesn\u2019t account for rising competition in the semiconductor market.<\/p>\n<p>As David Trainer, founder and CEO of research firm New Constructs, told <em>Fortune<\/em>\u2019s Shawn Tully <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/06\/13\/nvidia-stock-forecast-earnings-competition-outlook\/\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/06\/13\/nvidia-stock-forecast-earnings-competition-outlook\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">last month<\/a>: \u201cNvidia\u2019s valuation is ridiculous. It\u2019s facing the same curse as <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/tesla\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/tesla\/\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\" rel=\"noopener\">Tesla<\/a>. But when Tesla got profitable, loads of competitors entered the EV space, cutting margins and slowing sales. The same will happen with Nvidia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But Ives noted that even though Nvidia\u2019s shares have surged, its revenues and earnings have followed suit. Nvidia raked in a record $26 billion in revenues and $14.8 billion in net income in the quarter that ended this April. In 2021, during the same quarter, the company had revenues of just $5.8 billion and net income of $1.9 billion.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Louis Navellier, founder and chairman of family office Navellier &amp; Associates, also brushed off the competition argument, claiming Nvidia essentially has a \u201cmonopoly\u201d on key AI chips which will lead to consistent sales and earnings growth for years to come. \u201cAnd, you know, Jensen is kind of like the new Elon, he\u2019s got kind of a cult status,\u201d he said, adding that will continue to drive retail investors in the stock.<\/p>\n<p>Nvidia\u2019s market capitalization as of July 5: $3.14 trillion<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Microsoft<\/h2>\n<p>Microsoft\u2019s booming cloud business and big investment into ChatGPT creator OpenAI have buoyed its shares over the past few years. But it\u2019s the company\u2019s diverse and sustainable revenue streams that will lead it to a $4 trillion market cap, according to Tim Pagliara, founder and chief investment officer of independent wealth management firm CapWealth.<\/p>\n<p>He said Nvidia may briefly touch the $4 trillion milestone first, due to what he called the current AI \u201cmania,\u201d but Microsoft will be the \u201cmore sustainable\u201d $4 trillion company.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey&#8217;re embracing AI, but they also have just a tremendous number of things in the pipeline. And I know as a small business owner, we just gladly keep paying them more per user per month for everything from Azure to some of the additional add ons that they have created for security and things like that,\u201d he added, referencing Microsoft\u2019s Azure cloud computing business.<\/p>\n<p>Pagliara thinks Microsoft\u2019s big tech rivals have riskier business models as well. Apple is dependent on consumers buying into its new iPhone offerings every few years, and Nvidia is benefiting from a lack of competition in the near term, he said. Meanwhile, Microsoft has multiple avenues for consistent revenue growth from the Azure cloud business and Office 365 to Windows and Linkedin.<\/p>\n<p>Market cap: $3.48 trillion<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Apple<\/h2>\n<p>When it comes to a longer-term outlook, Apple is high on many analysts\u2019 lists because of its potential to use AI to get customers to upgrade their current phones and lure in more iPhone customers. It may not be the first to reach a $4 trillion market cap, but it will get there soon, these bulls say.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think over the next two, three years, the largest market cap that we will see is Apple, because they have 2.2 billion iOS devices,\u201d Ives predicted. \u201cConsumer AI is going to go through the walls for Cupertino\u2014they are only in the beginning of an AI-driven supercycle.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Louis Navellier was also optimistic about Apple\u2019s future, but he said it will need a few \u201clittle breakthroughs\u201d to get more customers to buy new iPhones. <\/p>\n<p>He pointed to new AI tools and the potential for folding iPhones as examples. \u201cI don&#8217;t know if they&#8217;re going to announce that in September, but if they do, it will be a $2,500 phone, and it will sell like crazy and send that stock soaring.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Market cap: $3.46 trillion<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What about Alphabet and Amazon?\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>The Google parent\u2019s market cap is currently $2.36 trillion, leaving it well shy of the $4 trillion mark. Analysts said Alphabet will be able to capitalize on the AI revolution, but its missteps with hallucinations have left it behind, and its cloud business isn\u2019t performing as well as others. However, the search giant is taking talent from its peers in an attempt to catch up, recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crn.com\/news\/cloud\/2024\/google-cloud-nabs-aws-microsoft-copilot-execs-to-lead-ai\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.crn.com\/news\/cloud\/2024\/google-cloud-nabs-aws-microsoft-copilot-execs-to-lead-ai\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-80b85506-0 pUpMT\">reports<\/a> have shown.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a similar story for Amazon, which just recently passed the $2 trillion milestone, and experts expect it will take time for share prices to nearly double. Wedbush\u2019s Ives argued that Amazon\u2019s cloud business, AWS, has also lost out to Microsoft. \u201c\u200b\u200bI think there was some hubris in underestimating what Nadella and Microsoft are doing, and with the crosstown rivals and in that 2-0-6 area code, it&#8217;s been a bit of a gut punch for Amazon,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And when it comes to AI, Amazon is just \u201cbehind the eightball\u201d too, according to the veteran tech analyst. However, Ives noted that CEO Andy Jassy has made changes to the company\u2019s cloud business, and with a massive base of customers, Amazon should benefit more from AI moving forward.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>To be sure, every tech giant on this list also faces risks. Antitrust regulations, cyber attacks, a slowing economy, and a reduction in AI spending should all be considered. But for now, the bulls remain bullish\u2013and they think you should be too.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe tech bears with their spreadsheets and valuations will stay in hibernation mode,\u201d Ives said. \u201cBut when everyone meets for breakfast at 6 am after this AI party. The bulls [will have] won and the bears just sound smart.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/07\/07\/nvidia-win-race-4-trillion-market-cap-big-tech-outlook-google-microsoft-amazon-apple\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] A surprisingly resilient economy and profit-filled AI boom are driving the United States\u2019 big tech giants toward a milestone that would have seemed impossible<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":240533,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[149],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240532"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=240532"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240532\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/240533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=240532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=240532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=240532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}