NFP at +206K vs +191K.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n There are questions whether the CES is overstating employment growth, perhaps because of the birth-death model. Here is cumulative growth private NFP since March 2023 (last benchmarked data), compared against ADP\u2019s series (which does not rely upon the birth-death model).<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and from ADP (tan), in logs 2023M03=0. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Here\u2019s the three month (nonannualized) growth rate of these two series.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/recindex_may24l.png\")
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