{"id":239828,"date":"2024-07-04T19:30:16","date_gmt":"2024-07-04T19:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/04\/consensus-real-time-sahm-rule-for-june\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:15:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:15:28","slug":"consensus-real-time-sahm-rule-for-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/04\/consensus-real-time-sahm-rule-for-june\/","title":{"rendered":"Consensus \u2013 Real Time Sahm Rule for June"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-52737\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<blockquote>\n<p>Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/srscenario.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-52738\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/srscenario.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/srscenario.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/srscenario-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/srscenario-768x516.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/srscenario-624x419.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Real time Sahm Rule (blue), and consensus based on Bloomberg as of 7\/4\/2024 (tan square). Source: FRED, Bloomberg, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>If the unemployment rate instead hits 4.1%, then the Sahm rule would indicate a recession. If the consensus is hit in June, and the unemployment rate stays constant through July then we\u2019ll be at the threshold.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/07\/consensus-real-time-sahm-rule-for-june\" title=\"11:48 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-07-04T11:48:44-07:00\">July 4, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/07\/consensus-real-time-sahm-rule-for-june\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time): Figure 1: Real time Sahm Rule (blue), and consensus<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":239829,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239828"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=239828"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239828\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/239829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=239828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=239828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=239828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}