{"id":239510,"date":"2024-07-03T23:32:49","date_gmt":"2024-07-03T23:32:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/03\/business-cycle-indicators-july-1st\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:15:32","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:15:32","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-july-1st","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/03\/business-cycle-indicators-july-1st\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st"},"content":{"rendered":"

[ad_1]
\n<\/p>\n

Monthly GDP up two months in a row. Final sales in May up, but not offsetting completely decline in April. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP from SPGMI (formerly IHS-Markit, and Macroeconomic Advisers before that).<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 third release, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a> (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Every indicator for which we have data, save civilian employment, is up in May.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, GDPNow for Q1 is now 1.7% (SAAR), down from 2.2%. SPGMI tracking is 1.9%.<\/p>\n

When combined with deceleration in core inflation measures<\/a>, and year-ahead inflation expectations<\/a>, it seems to me the Fed has thus far engineered a pretty soft landing (although one has to caveat that the economic activity indicators will be revised going forward).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

[ad_2]
\n
Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] Monthly GDP up two months in a row. Final sales in May up, but not offsetting completely decline in April. Here’s a picture of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":239511,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239510"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=239510"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/239510\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/239511"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=239510"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=239510"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=239510"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}