{"id":238002,"date":"2024-06-29T19:03:36","date_gmt":"2024-06-29T19:03:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/29\/one-year-ahead-inflation-expectations-stable\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:15:50","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:15:50","slug":"one-year-ahead-inflation-expectations-stable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/29\/one-year-ahead-inflation-expectations-stable\/","title":{"rendered":"One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable"},"content":{"rendered":"

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With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (light green), Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), Coibion-Gorodnichenko SoFIE mean (sky blue squares), and unit cost growth rate (chartreuse), all in %. Source: BLS, U.Michigan via FRED,\u00a0Philadelphia Fed<\/a>,\u00a0Atlanta Fed<\/a>,\u00a0Cleveland Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

With CPI inflation running about 0.45 ppts faster than PCE inflation over the 1986-2024 period, we are close to the 2% PCE inflation target, at least insofar as the SPF is concerned, perhaps half a ppt from the Michigan survey (which historically has been upwardly biased in terms of forecast errors). Note that unit cost expectations (Atlanta Fed) do not suggest imminent cost push pressures.<\/p>\n

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