PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m\/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Instantaneous PCE inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023)<\/a> for PCE (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (light green).\u00a0 May PCE core for May is Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 6\/13. Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, BLS<\/a>,\u00a0Cleveland Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Instantaneous core is now at target.<\/p>\n While PCE and core PCE m\/m inflation were at consensus, they were both below Cleveland Fed nowcasts.<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Cleveland Fed<\/a>, accessed 6\/28\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n Here\u2019s an updated picture of core measures.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per\u00a0Eeckhout (2023)<\/a>\u00a0for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan), PCE deflator (pink), CPI supercore (teal), PPI core (light green).\u00a0 Source: BLS, BEA via FRED,\u00a0BLS<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Now, for sure, we know all core measures are down in May<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/inflpcepix_may24.png\")
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