With Q1 3rd release, along with GDP+, we have the following picture (in levels):<\/p>\n
FIgure 1:<\/strong> GDP reported (bold black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (tan), final sales (light blue), CBO June projection (red), and GDPNow (27 June), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ level iterated on 2019Q4 reported level of GDP. Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release via FRED, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a>, CBO (June)<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Reported GDP is substantially above GDO or GDP+ (1.1% and 0.9% respectively), but the growth rates are not too dissimilar. GDPNow is tracking the June CBO projection (based on early May data).<\/p>\n Final sales is a measure of aggregate demand; this measure is maintaining pace.<\/p>\n It\u2019s easier to see some of these trends in growth rates.<\/p>\n FIgure 2:<\/strong> Quarter-on-Quarter annualized growth rate of GDP reported (bold black), of GDO (blue), of GDP+ (tan), of final sales (light blue), of CBO June GDP projection (red), and of GDPNow (27 June). Growth rates calculated as first log differences. Source: BEA 2024Q1 3rd release via FRED, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a>, CBO (June)<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n What\u2019s also true is that all measures have decelerated in Q1, with GDP and GDO growth rates matching.<\/p>\n At a higher frequency, we have slight acceleration, as the Lewis-Mertens-Stock\/NY Fed WEI is reading at 2.53% (for data through 6\/22), while the Baumeister\/Leiva-Leon\/Sims is at -0.16% (i.e., -0.16% below trend growth)<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/gdppix_jun24c.png\")
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