Linking failure to success may be not only inaccurate but also damaging to society, according to a paper published last week in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0Researchers from Northwestern, Cornell, Yale, and Columbia universities conducted 11 studies involving more than 1,800 participants, and found that people overestimate the rates at which failure begets success. Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, PhD<\/a>, an assistant professor at Northwestern\u2019s Kellogg School of Management<\/a>, led the team.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re just trying to understand what holds people back from true resilience,\u201d she tells Fortune<\/em>. \u201cBusiness leaders like to talk about failure as fuel. While [this view] could lead you to be a little bit less scared of failure, when failure happens it makes you less likely to take the active steps that bring actual resilience about.\u201d<\/p>\n Failure comes in countless forms, but here Eskreis-Winkler and her colleagues defined it as any event that didn\u2019t achieve a desired goal<\/a>. They considered success a corrective action that achieved or made progress toward the previously failed goal.<\/p>\n In one part of the study, participants were asked to predict the likelihood of a nurse, lawyer, or teacher passing a licensing exam after having failed. People overestimated success rates in each profession. For instance, they predicted a 58% success rate for lawyers who retook the bar exam, whereas the real-world rate was 35%. Similarly, participants overestimated the percentage of students who retook and passed the General Education Diploma test.<\/p>\n \u201cYou could see this whole phenomenon as a strand of optimism bias<\/a>,\u201d Eskreis-Winkler says, \u201ca tendency to be overly optimistic about lots of things in life including, in this particular instance, the likelihood that we bounce back from failure.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n The benefits of failure aren\u2019t so much overrated as they are misunderstood, according to Rick Hunt, PhD<\/a>, director of doctoral studies in management at Virginia Tech\u2019s Pamplin College of Business<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cNo matter where you stand on the benefits of failure, you are probably wrong,\u201d Hunt tells Fortune<\/em> via email. \u201cNowhere have the benefits of failure been embraced more enthusiastically than in the study and practice of entrepreneurship. Failure is an inevitable facet of the entrepreneurial journey\u2014and is vastly more commonplace than commercial success\u2014so scholars have worked hard to understand the causes and consequences of failure.\u201d<\/p>\n The belief that failure is critical to entrepreneurial growth has become overblown to the point of romanticism, Hunt says, noting that many of the celebrity entrepreneurs who wear failure as a badge of honor didn\u2019t have to risk the roof over their head to launch a business. On the other hand, failure has been destigmatized.<\/p>\n \u201c\u200b\u200bNeither a valorization nor a vilification of failure is accurate or useful, in entrepreneurship or any other human endeavor. The question is where the pain of failure falls versus the benefits of failure,\u201d Hunt says. \u201cIn entrepreneurship, the pain typically falls upon individuals, while the benefits are captured by wider society. That is, individuals generate valuable lessons from their failures, but rarely share in the benefits of those lessons.\u201d<\/p>\n Overestimating the benefits of failure could also have devastating health consequences, Eskreis-Winkler\u2019s research found.\u00a0<\/p>\n One segment of the study asked participants to gauge the likelihood that someone with an ongoing opioid abuse disorder would enter a treatment program after experiencing an overdose. They predicted 51%, compared to the actual 17% rate. Another group was given the same task but wasn\u2019t told about the overdose \u201cfailure.\u201d They estimated a more accurate 33%, leading researchers to conclude that the mention of failure rather than optimism bias is what causes people to overestimate success.<\/p>\n When participants were asked to guess what percentage of heart attack patients implement healthy lifestyle changes, they overestimated once again: 62% compared to the real-world 47%. This translates to participants incorrectly believing that 32,000 heart attack survivors in the U.S. would improve their health, the researchers noted.<\/p>\n \u201cI think it\u2019s that everyone wants to be resilient,\u201d Eskreis-Winkler tells Fortune<\/em>. \u201cThis common message of \u2018failure is fuel; it\u2019s a stepping stone to success\u2019 is so well-intentioned. The goal really is to abet resilience.\u201d<\/p>\n FG Trade\/Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n Part of the reason why people tend to overestimate others\u2019 bouncebackability is because they also overinflate how much others pay attention to their mistakes, the research found.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat really gets in the way of resilience is that when people fail, they tune out and they stop paying attention and they disengage,\u201d Eskreis-Winkler says. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t matter if you\u2019re disengaging because you\u2019re afraid of failure, or if you\u2019re disengaging because you\u2019re overly optimistic about failure. Really, what you need is a clear-eyed view of the actual likelihood of what\u2019s going to happen in failure\u2019s aftermath.\u201d<\/p>\n Tempering your expectations involves understanding the difference between inspiration and motivation, she says. With graduation season in full swing, for example, you may have recently been inspired by a commencement speech. But when the ceremony was over, did lingering feelings of inspiration actually motivate you to take positive action?<\/p>\n The final leg of Eskreis-Winkler\u2019s research sheds light on the policy implications of correcting misguided perceptions about failure. Participants informed of recidivism statistics were more likely to support taxpayer funding for the rehabilitation of formerly incarcerated people.<\/p>\n \u201cYou simply tell people the actual rate at which bouncing back from failure happens. The minute that you correct this overly optimistic view, it\u2019s like people have a sobering wake-up call,\u201d she says. \u201cYou realize it\u2019s not as likely to just come about and happen on its own.\u201d<\/p>\n As painful a pill as failure may be to swallow, entrepreneurs in particular should let it ground them, Hunt says.<\/p>\n \u201cThe \u2018Phoenix Effect\u2019 is a nice idea\u2014and is a quintessentially American, Alger-esque notion\u2014but it rarely ever comes to pass,\u201d Hunt says. \u201cFolks have resources for one, and maybe two shots at getting something right, but then become part of the fertile soil for future efforts by others.\u201d<\/p>\n For more on fielding failure:<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n Subscribe to Well Adjusted, our newsletter full of simple strategies to work smarter and live better, from the Fortune Well team. <\/span>Sign up<\/span><\/a> for free today.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\nFailures in business and in health<\/h2>\n
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Bouncing back: Inspiration doesn\u2019t equal motivation<\/h2>\n