The survey indicates 2.0% median growth q4\/q4, not far from June SEP at 2.1% (unchanged from March).<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), May Survey of Professional Forecasters median (blue), FT-Booth School implied (tan square), Survey of Economic Projections\/FOMC June median implied (light green x), GDPNow of 7 Jun implied\u00a0 (sky blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q1 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, Booth School survey<\/a>, Federal Reserve Board<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n While median is 2.0% 2024 q4\/q4, the 10th\/90th percentile range is 1.8%-2.7%. I was considerably more gloomy, with median at 1.8% (0.8% to 2.5%). Central tendency for SEP (removing bottom and top 3) is 1.9%-2.3%, range (all responses) is 1.4%-2.7%.<\/p>\n The modal response for recession start is now 2026Q1 or later, compared to March (see here<\/a>).<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> FT-Booth School survey (June 2024)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n The probability of a recession start in 2024 has dropped from 18% in March to 12% in May, while the modal prediction of 2026Q1 or later has risen from 46% to 52%. Once again, I\u2019m more gloomy short term, at 40% probability in 2024, reflecting the implications of the term spread (but keeping in mind the debt-service ratio)<\/a>.<\/p>\n FT article here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/gdppix_jun24a.png\")
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