{"id":227814,"date":"2024-06-03T23:03:01","date_gmt":"2024-06-03T23:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/03\/nowcasts-down-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:17:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:17:57","slug":"nowcasts-down-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/03\/nowcasts-down-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Nowcasts Down | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Atlanta and NY Fed lower growth rates for Q2<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP as reported (bold black), GDPNow (light blue square) , NY Fed (pink triangle), Survey of Professional Forecasters May median (light green line), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA (2024Q1 2nd release), Atlanta Fed<\/a>, NY Fed<\/a>, Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

For a first, the implied level using GDPNow is below the May SPF, a result of downward revision in Q1 GDP and slower nowcasted growth.<\/p>\n

The downward movement in nowcasts is pronounced. Consider GDPNow.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> Atlanta Fed<\/a>, accessed 3 June 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

The downside surprise on construction and ISM manufacturing was the big mover \u2014 from 2.7% to 1.8% q\/q SAAR in GDPNow. Goldman Sachs tracking only dropped 0.1 ppts by comparison.<\/p>\n

That being said, no recession is apparent in Q2 nowcasts yet. Nor in monthly indicators for April (see here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

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