{"id":226853,"date":"2024-06-01T02:31:51","date_gmt":"2024-06-01T02:31:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/01\/u-s-and-china-headed-for-a-forever-trade-war-stephen-roach-says\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:18:12","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:18:12","slug":"u-s-and-china-headed-for-a-forever-trade-war-stephen-roach-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/01\/u-s-and-china-headed-for-a-forever-trade-war-stephen-roach-says\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. and China headed for a &#8216;forever&#8217; trade war, Stephen Roach says"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<br \/><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/img-assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/GettyImages-1784317745-e1717188391250.jpg?w=2048\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The escalating U.S.-China <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/04\/17\/biden-us-steel-totally-american-china-tariffs-aluminum\/\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/04\/17\/biden-us-steel-totally-american-china-tariffs-aluminum\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">trade war<\/a> could become a \u201cforever war\u201d that ultimately <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/asia\/2023\/09\/18\/us-china-trade-war-counterproductiveand-huawei-p60-chip-unforeseen-ramifications-ben-harburg\/\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/asia\/2023\/09\/18\/us-china-trade-war-counterproductiveand-huawei-p60-chip-unforeseen-ramifications-ben-harburg\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">drags on<\/a> with no clear end in sight, according to Stephen Roach, who is an expert on the Chinese economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The former chair of <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/morgan-stanley\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/morgan-stanley\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">Morgan Stanley<\/a> Asia took issue with the U.S.\u2019s latest trade policies against China during public remarks in Beijing on Friday. A trade war between the two countries would be a \u201cblunder\u201d that would ultimately leave both worse off, Roach said in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-05-31\/us-risks-a-forever-trade-war-with-china-stephen-roach-says\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-05-31\/us-risks-a-forever-trade-war-with-china-stephen-roach-says\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">comments<\/a> first reported by Bloomberg.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI worry that Biden is getting himself even deeper into a new \u2018forever war\u2019 against Chinese trading practices,\u201d Roach said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The comments come after his earlier criticisms of China\u2019s leadership drew Beijing\u2019s ire. In February, Roach published an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/27a2c28e-d28b-444c-97fd-4616ed32c675\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/27a2c28e-d28b-444c-97fd-4616ed32c675\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">op-ed<\/a> in the <em>Financial Times<\/em> that criticized the Chinese government\u2019s harsh response to the Hong Kong <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/09\/world\/asia\/hong-kong-protests-one-year-later.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/06\/09\/world\/asia\/hong-kong-protests-one-year-later.html\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">protests<\/a> in 2019 and 2020, saying \u201cthe imposition of a new Beijing-centric national security law, shredded any remaining semblance of local political autonomy\u201d in the former British colony.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Those comments did not go over well with Chinese officials. Roach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rfa.org\/english\/news\/china\/china-roach-hk-04022024021306.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.rfa.org\/english\/news\/china\/china-roach-hk-04022024021306.html\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">said<\/a> he was asked not to discuss the topic when he spoke at the China Development Forum earlier this year. Still, he has also been vocal about his concerns about China\u2019s rocky economy. The country\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/30\/business\/china-evergrande-real-estate.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/30\/business\/china-evergrande-real-estate.html\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">real estate sector <\/a>has been underwater, causing its largest developer, Evergrande, to go <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/08\/18\/china-evergrande-bankrupcy-chapter-15-debt-restructuring\/\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2023\/08\/18\/china-evergrande-bankrupcy-chapter-15-debt-restructuring\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">bankrupt<\/a>. Meanwhile, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/china\/2024\/02\/06\/can-consumers-rescue-chinas-economy\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.economist.com\/china\/2024\/02\/06\/can-consumers-rescue-chinas-economy\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">Chinese consumers<\/a> have curbed their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/chinas-consumer-spending-isnt-growing-as-fast-as-it-did-pre-pandemic.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/10\/11\/chinas-consumer-spending-isnt-growing-as-fast-as-it-did-pre-pandemic.html\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">spending<\/a>, further holding back the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere\u2019s a serious set of challenges that China faces,\u201d Roach told CNBC in March. \u201cThey may have run out of imaginative solutions to tough problems.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Against that backdrop, a trade war with the U.S., the world\u2019s largest economy, has been heating up.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Over the last year, the Biden administration has implemented a series of new trade policies meant to curb China\u2019s access to certain technologies, most notably semiconductors. In October 2023, the U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/10\/18\/tech\/us-china-chip-export-curbs-intl-hnk\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/10\/18\/tech\/us-china-chip-export-curbs-intl-hnk\/index.html\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">restricted access<\/a> for Chinese companies to chips used in development of AI. The U.S. eventually <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/01\/18\/china-could-face-more-chip-restrictions-in-2024-analysts-say.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/01\/18\/china-could-face-more-chip-restrictions-in-2024-analysts-say.html\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">recruited allies<\/a> like Japan and the Netherlands to also implement some bans on AI chip sales to China.<\/p>\n<p>China then <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/7bf0f79b-dea7-49fa-8253-f678d5acd64a\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/7bf0f79b-dea7-49fa-8253-f678d5acd64a\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">answered<\/a> with its own chip ban this year, with <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/intel-amd-stocks-sink-china-141412385.html?_fsig=pRD.rezeMiMLDhk.SB.6vA--%7EA\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/intel-amd-stocks-sink-china-141412385.html?_fsig=pRD.rezeMiMLDhk.SB.6vA--%7EA\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">new barriers<\/a> that targeted American companies such as <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/intel\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/intel\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">Intel<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/advanced-micro-devices\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/advanced-micro-devices\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">AMD<\/a>, whose products were phased out of its government systems. In addition, the Biden administration <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/asia\/2023\/10\/18\/nvidia-china-export-ban-biden-jensen-huang-ai-military-taiwan\/\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/asia\/2023\/10\/18\/nvidia-china-export-ban-biden-jensen-huang-ai-military-taiwan\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">implemented stricter export bans<\/a> to close a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/chinas-military-government-acquire-nvidia-chips-despite-us-ban-2024-01-14\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/chinas-military-government-acquire-nvidia-chips-despite-us-ban-2024-01-14\/\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">loophole<\/a> that still let China acquire certain <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/nvidia\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/company\/nvidia\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">Nvidia<\/a> chips.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/chinas-chip-ban-tit-tat-165836423.html\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/chinas-chip-ban-tit-tat-165836423.html\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">tit-for-tat<\/a> between the U.S. and China has expanded to include companies in other industries as well. The possible forced sale of TikTok to an American company has also irked Chinese authorities, not to mention the social media company\u2019s corporate parent ByteDance. More recently, the Biden administration instituted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/05\/14\/1251096758\/biden-china-tariffs-ev-electric-vehicles-5-things\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2024\/05\/14\/1251096758\/biden-china-tariffs-ev-electric-vehicles-5-things\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">high tariffs<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/trade\/biden-to-quadruple-tariffs-on-chinese-evs-203127bf\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/economy\/trade\/biden-to-quadruple-tariffs-on-chinese-evs-203127bf\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">Chinese electric vehicles<\/a> and a wide range of other clean energy products like solar cells and advanced batteries..\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>But Roach warned that whatever gains the U.S. might make in blocking Chinese semiconductor technology could be offset by China\u2019s withholding of green energy developments.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTo take a protectionist stand against a country like China, that has a comparative advantage in producing the non-carbon alternative energy products that a world in the grips of climate change desperately needs is a blunder, potentially of historic proportions,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>China is a <a href=\"https:\/\/fairbank.fas.harvard.edu\/research\/blog\/how-china-is-winning-the-race-for-clean-energy-technology%EF%BF%BC\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fairbank.fas.harvard.edu\/research\/blog\/how-china-is-winning-the-race-for-clean-energy-technology%EF%BF%BC\/\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">world leader<\/a> in many of the technologies that will either enable or power the energy transition. It makes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/03\/29\/china-clean-green-energy-technology-trade\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2024\/03\/29\/china-clean-green-energy-technology-trade\/\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">80%<\/a> of the world\u2019s solar panels, and is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/china-widens-wind-power-lead-with-new-generation-record-maguire-2024-04-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/china-widens-wind-power-lead-with-new-generation-record-maguire-2024-04-18\/\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">top producer<\/a> of wind energy.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Other critics <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/05\/23\/biden-tariffs-chinese-ev-tech-politics\/\" target=\"_self\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/05\/23\/biden-tariffs-chinese-ev-tech-politics\/\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\" rel=\"noopener\">echoed<\/a> Roach\u2019s sentiments that curbing imports of green tech is self-defeating. They, too, argued that <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/05\/28\/biden-china-electricvehicles\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2024\/05\/28\/biden-china-electricvehicles\/\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">limiting<\/a> the free flow of green technologies would ultimately be a net negative for the U.S.\u2019s efforts to <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/energy-environment\/4670967-joe-biden-china-tariffs-risk-downgrading-energy-transition\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"Go to https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/energy-environment\/4670967-joe-biden-china-tariffs-risk-downgrading-energy-transition\/\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"sc-424e8006-0 lagCOr\">address<\/a> climate change.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The full consequences of the U.S.-China trade war will likely take years to be fully understood. In the meantime, no matter how grave their consequences may be, the tensions look unlikely to ease soon. In his <em>FT<\/em> article in February, Roach wrote that he didn\u2019t \u201csee an easy path to the resolution of U.S.-China tensions.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2024\/05\/31\/stephen-roach-us-china-trade-war-economy-tariffs-semiconductor-chips-tiktok\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] The escalating U.S.-China trade war could become a \u201cforever war\u201d that ultimately drags on with no clear end in sight, according to Stephen Roach,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":226854,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[149],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226853"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=226853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/226853\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/226854"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=226853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=226853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=226853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}