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The past few years have seen a significant rise in inflation in many countries, driven by a range of factors from pandemic-fuelled shortages to the war in Ukraine. But even now, as inflation is falling, prices are still rising, albeit more slowly. This subtlety is often missed, intentionally or otherwise, by politicians seeking to claim victory over inflation.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t worry, you haven\u2019t accidentally started reading The Economist.<\/i> The point is that we may soon see a similar effect in the global climate. As we report in \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o is ending after a year of driving extreme weather<\/a>\u201c, the El Ni\u00f1o climate pattern is about to come to an end. Just like the recent inflationary period, El Ni\u00f1o has seen graphs soar, with a nearly year-long streak of record-breaking temperatures.<\/p>\n The trouble is, just as prices continue to rise when inflation falls, the carbon dioxide we have pumped into the atmosphere will keep pushing up temperatures, even without the influence of El Ni\u00f1o. While coming years may be cooler, overall, the planet is still warming at an alarming rate.<\/p>\n Precisely how close we are to exceeding 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial temperatures, a key limit to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, is hard to assess. Traditionally, climate scientists look at this over decades, meaning we would only confirm a breach in retrospect.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n There is some good news here at least, as a new analysis shows that we can simply count the number of years in which average global temperatures exceed 1.5\u00b0C (see \u201cThree years of high temperatures will mean we have breached 1.5\u00b0C<\/a>\u201c). It found that just three years above 1.5\u00b0C is enough to confirm a breach. The bad news is that 2024 may be the first.<\/p>\n As we have said many time before, despair isn\u2019t the answer. Unlike inflation, climate spikes are somewhat predictable. The next El Ni\u00f1o is likely to occur between two and seven years from now, so almost certainly within this decade. Before it comes, bringing yet more heat, the world should use this period to finally bend the curve on carbon emissions with a proper push for net zero by 2050. We will all benefit \u2013 and politicians might have something real to celebrate.<\/p>\n Topics:<\/p>\n<\/section><\/div>\n