{"id":225271,"date":"2024-05-29T16:02:10","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T16:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/29\/recession-watch-in-which-i-agree-with-zerohedge\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:18:32","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:18:32","slug":"recession-watch-in-which-i-agree-with-zerohedge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/29\/recession-watch-in-which-i-agree-with-zerohedge\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession Watch: In Which I Agree with ZeroHedge"},"content":{"rendered":"

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From Zerohedge<\/a><\/p>\n

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Given the long lag between recessionary indicators and economic recession, it is unsurprising economists gave up anticipating a recession. However, while the recession has not happened yet, it does not mean that it still can\u2019t. We should pay special attention to data historically correlated to economic growth.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

To recap, here are the indicators that the NBER uses to determine peaks and troughs, although not in \u201creal time\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q1 advance release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (5\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Everybody has their favorite indicator \u2013 Vehicle Miles Traveled, gasoline consumption, growth of full time workers, and so forth. I\u2019ll just observe that the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index shows 2.05% \u2014 just at trend if trend is 2% \u2014 using data released through 18th of May.<\/p>\n

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The Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Indicator<\/a> registers -0.52% (i.e. about half a point below trend growth).<\/p>\n

So the recession could still appear, maybe six months from now, maybe next month. A simple plain vanilla term spread model says May is the highest likelihood for a recession so it still could happen. Or not.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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[ad_1] From Zerohedge Given the long lag between recessionary indicators and economic recession, it is unsurprising economists gave up anticipating a recession. However, while the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":225272,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225271"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=225271"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225271\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/225272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=225271"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=225271"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=225271"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}