{"id":224018,"date":"2024-04-15T16:05:54","date_gmt":"2024-04-15T16:05:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/15\/gdp-forecasts-brighten-yet-further\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:18:36","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:18:36","slug":"gdp-forecasts-brighten-yet-further","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/15\/gdp-forecasts-brighten-yet-further\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP Forecasts Brighten Yet Further"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The WSJ April survey<\/a> is out (responses April 5-9):<\/p>\n

First, the level of forecasted GDP over the last 3 surveys (7 months):<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), WSJ April 2024 mean forecast implied level (blue), January 2024 (red), October 2023 (light green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q4 3rd release, WSJ surveys (various issues), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Currently, the mean forecast for Q1 is exceeded by two of the most recent nowcasts (Atlanta, NY Feds):<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong>\u00a0GDP (bold black), February SPF (light blue), GDPNow (4\/10) (red square), NY Fed (light green square), St. Louis Fed (blue inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source BEA via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The mean and median forecasts are for no negative quarters of growth. Even the trimmed lower bound (taking off the bottom 6 forecasts for 2024) doesn\u2019t show two consecutive negative quarters.<\/p>\n

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Figure 3:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), WSJ April 2024 mean forecast implied level (blue), median (tan), 20% trimmed high\/low for 2024 (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q4 3rd release, WSJ surveys (various issues), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Trimmed low is Mike Cosgrove\/Econoclast, high is Song Won Sohn\/SS Economics. Median is Satyam Panday\/S&P Global Ratings.<\/p>\n

The highest growth rate forecast is perennial optimist James Smith\/EconForecaster (3.3% if 2024 q4\/q4). Andrew Hollenhorst & Veronica Clark\/C<\/span><\/span>itigroup and Amy Crew Cutts\/AC Cutts both forecast negative growth in Q2-Q3.<\/span><\/p>\n

As for recession (recall, NBER does not define a recession by the two-quarters-consecutive-negative-GDP-growth rule-of-thumb<\/a>), economists views diverge substantially from a purely statistical prediction (probit) based on the 10yr-3mo term spread and the WSJ survey.<\/p>\n

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Figure 4:<\/strong> WSJ survey probability of recession within<\/strong> one year (blue), and probit based 10yr-3mo spread recession in<\/strong> one year\u00a0 (tan), both in %. Probit estimates based on 1986-2018 (pre-pandemic). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: WSJ, NBER, author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Note that in the run-up to the 2007-09 recession, the probit model lead the survey measure, while probit and survey rose in tandem through end-2022, diverging thereafter.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] The WSJ April survey is out (responses April 5-9): First, the level of forecasted GDP over the last 3 surveys (7 months): Figure 1:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":224019,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224018"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=224018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/224019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=224018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=224018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=224018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}