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Iran\u2019s massive\u00a0missile and drone attack<\/a>\u00a0on Israel, which began in the late hours of April 13, pushed the conflict between the two countries into a potentially explosive new phase. For decades, Israel and Iran have fought a\u00a0shadow war,<\/a>\u00a0attacking each other mostly quietly and in Iran\u2019s case often by proxy. That changed with Iran\u2019s retaliatory response to an April 1 attack it blamed on Israel in which several Iranian officers were killed in Syria. Israel\u2019s response to the missile and drone assault could determine whether the next stage is all-out war.<\/p>\n Israel\u2019s forces have a vast technological edge over Iran\u2019s. That\u2019s partly down to military and financial support from the US, which has long sought to ensure Israel\u2019s advantage as part of its commitment to the Jewish state\u2019s security. For example Israel is the only state in the Middle East so far that\u2019s bought Lockheed Martin<\/a> Corp.\u2019s F-35 fighter jet \u2014 the costliest weapons system ever.\u00a0<\/p>\n Israel is also widely believed to have nuclear weapons, though it has never acknowledged that capability.<\/p>\n By contrast, sanctions and political isolation have hobbled Iran\u2019s access to foreign military technology, driving it to develop its own weapons including the missiles and drones it fired on Saturday. Iran\u2019s combat aircraft are mostly older models inherited from before the country\u2019s 1979 revolution. It\u2019s agreed to buy Russian jets but it\u2019s not clear that they\u2019ve been delivered.<\/p>\n Though at a technological disadvantage, Iran\u2019s military is thought to have a significant stockpile of the ballistic and cruise missiles and cheap unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, that it deployed against Israel April 13.\u00a0<\/p>\n As Iran learned, penetrating Israel\u2019s substantial air defenses is a challenge. There\u2019s getting past Israeli Air Force fighters. Then there are Israel\u2019s Arrow and David\u2019s Sling air-defense systems, which together with US and\u00a0other allied forces<\/a>\u00a0in the region intercepted the \u201cvast majority\u201d of the more than 200 drones and missiles Iran fired, according to Israel\u2019s military.\u00a0<\/p>\n Tehran\u2019s arsenal also includes surface-to-air missiles, including Russia\u2019s S-300 air defense system, but these aren\u2019t as battle tested as Israel\u2019s defenses. Iran accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger aircraft in 2020 amid heightened tensions with the US using a Russian-made Tor air-defense missile.<\/p>\n Both Israel and Iran have cyberwar capabilities. More than a decade ago, malware known as Stuxnet\u00a0compromised operations<\/a>\u00a0at an Iranian nuclear enrichment facility in what\u2019s suspected to have been a US and Israeli operation. Iran is capable of \u201ca range of cyber operations, from information operations to destructive attacks against government and commercial networks worldwide,\u201d according to an assessment by the US Defense Intelligence Agency released April 11. Cyberattacks launched by Iran include a hack that sought to cripple computers and water flow for two Israeli districts,\u00a0according to<\/a>\u00a0the Council on Foreign Relations.\u00a0<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s most important allies are the\u00a0Shiite militias<\/a>\u00a0in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that it supports with money, weapons and training. The Lebanese militia\u00a0Hezbollah<\/a>, which launched rockets on Israeli targets during Iran\u2019s April 13 assault on Israel, would be positioned to play the most significant role in an all-out war. It\u2019s fought repeated battles with Israel and has been regularly firing missiles, mortars and rockets into northern Israel since war broke out in October between Israel and the Iran-backed militant\u00a0Palestinian group Hamas<\/a>.\u00a0Hezbollah\u2019s arsenal<\/a>\u00a0contains more than 70,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range and precision-guided missiles, according to Israeli intelligence.\u00a0<\/p>\n Yemen\u2019s Iran-backed\u00a0Houthi rebels<\/a>\u00a0would likely be eager to play a part in a larger war. Since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, they have attempted to strike Israel with missles and drones and have disrupted traffic in the Red Sea<\/a> by repeatedly attacking ships there.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s only state ally in the Middle East is Syria. The government of President Bashar al-Assad would be unlikely to be of assistance given that it\u2019s still\u00a0struggling to gain control<\/a>\u00a0over the entire country following the outbreak of civil war in 2011.\u00a0<\/p>\n Iran has good relations with Russia, though its war in Ukraine would likely limit its ability to help, and with China, which has bought Iranian oil though it remains sanctioned by the US and allies.\u00a0<\/p>\n Israel has the US and the UK on its side. The US has already expedited shipments of munitions to Israel, to help it fight Hamas. Among the US forces in the Middle East region are two Navy destroyers that moved to the eastern Mediterranean in early April, according to a Navy official: the USS Carney and the USS Arleigh Burke, both capable of air defense.\u00a0<\/p>\n Early in the Israel-Hamas war, the Pentagon moved its newest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its battle group into the eastern Mediterranean. It has since returned home. The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group is on its way from operations against the Houthis. Each bristles with F\/A-18E\/F Super Hornet fighter jets and other advanced aircraft. In addition, 2,000 Marines were put on heightened alert for potential mobilization.<\/p>\n The UK Defense Ministry deployed Royal Air Force jets to help intercept the Iranian attack on Israel.\u00a0<\/p>\n An Israel-Iran war would put many of the countries in the region in a difficult position. Four Arab countries made\u00a0peace deals<\/a>\u00a0with Israel in 2020 via the so-called Abraham Accords. Their distrust of Iran was part of what\u00a0brought them together<\/a>. But it\u2019s unlikely any Arab state would stand with Israel in a confrontation against a fellow Muslim country, let alone one as powerful as Iran.\u00a0<\/p>\n Iran and Saudi Arabia last year restored diplomatic relations after a seven-year freeze. Saudi Arabia has been exploring the possibility of normalizing ties with Israel as part of a broader deal in which it hopes to attain US security guarantees, and it would likely try to avoid become embroiled in the conflict.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\nWho are their allies?\u00a0<\/h3>\n
How might Arab states react?<\/h3>\n