{"id":221717,"date":"2024-04-08T17:56:25","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T17:56:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/08\/steve-hanke-says-the-recession-cometh\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:19:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:19:04","slug":"steve-hanke-says-the-recession-cometh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/08\/steve-hanke-says-the-recession-cometh\/","title":{"rendered":"Steve Hanke Says the Recession Cometh"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>See <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/steve_hanke\/status\/1776682969777762614?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>with a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year. There have only been four contractionary episodes of the money supply since the Fed was established in 1913. With a lag, they all produced a RECESSION.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>That\u2019s true:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix1a.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51758\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix1a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix1a.png 820w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix1a-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix1a-768x498.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix1a-624x405.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> M2 from Friedman-Schwartz (tan), total deposits in commercial banks (green), and M2 from FRB (blue), year-on-year change. 2024Q1 is based on average of first two months. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER MacroHistory database (m14144a, m14145a), FRB via FRED, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, one might think M2 to economic activity (supply relative to one determinant of demand) might be more appropriate.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix2a.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51759\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix2a.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"835\" height=\"532\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix2a.png 835w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix2a-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix2a-768x489.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/hankepix2a-624x398.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 835px) 100vw, 835px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> M2 from Friedman-Schwartz (tan), total deposits in commercial banks (green), and M2 from FRB (blue), all divided by GDP, year-on-year change. 2024Q1 M2 is based on first two months, and GDPNow as of 4\/5. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: NBER MacroHistory database (m14144a, m14145a), FRB via FRED, BEA via FRED, Ramey, Atlanta Fed, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Not sure about the correlation in that case. Lots of negative growth rates without recessions pre-1960, mid-1990\u2019s, and 2010.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/04\/steve-hanke-says-the-recession-cometh\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] See here. with a 4.2% contraction in the US money supply (M2) since Mar-22, all signs are pointing to a recession late this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":221718,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221717"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=221717"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221717\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":329848,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221717\/revisions\/329848"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/221718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=221717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=221717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=221717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}