{"id":221040,"date":"2024-04-05T22:52:33","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T22:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/05\/business-cycle-indicators-employment-along-with-coincident-index-vmt-heavy-trucks-and-sahm-rule\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:19:12","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:19:12","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-employment-along-with-coincident-index-vmt-heavy-trucks-and-sahm-rule","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/05\/business-cycle-indicators-employment-along-with-coincident-index-vmt-heavy-trucks-and-sahm-rule\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators: Employment along with Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, and Sahm Rule"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Here\u2019s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (bold blue), from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (teal), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q4 2nd release,\u00a0S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (3\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

We can be fairly sure that employment growth is positive. See alternative indicators in this post<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here are some alternative indicators of economic activity.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Top panel: GDO (blue bar), coincident index (blue line), and vehicle miles traveled seasonally adjusted by author using X-13 (tan line), all in logs, 2021M11=0; Middle panel: Heavy truck sales, SAAR, (blue line), all in in logs, 2021M11=0; Bottom panel: Real time Sahm rule (blue), and recession threshold (red dashed line). Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, NHTSA, Census, FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

None of the indicators clearly signal the onset of a recession, although vehicle miles traveled has flattened out, with y\/y growth in January -0.8 %.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[ad_1] Here\u2019s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology: Figure 1:\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":221041,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221040"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=221040"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221040\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":330268,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221040\/revisions\/330268"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/221041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=221040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=221040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=221040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}