{"id":220153,"date":"2024-04-03T23:08:37","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T23:08:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/03\/presidential-election-polls-vs-prediction-markets\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:19:22","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:19:22","slug":"presidential-election-polls-vs-prediction-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/03\/presidential-election-polls-vs-prediction-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-51733\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/prespolls_3apr24.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51734\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/prespolls_3apr24.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"482\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/prespolls_3apr24.png 650w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/prespolls_3apr24-300x222.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/prespolls_3apr24-624x463.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Source:<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/general\/2024\/trump-vs-biden\"> RealClearPolitics<\/a>, accessed 4\/3\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The spread between Trump and Biden has narrowed recently. Polls also tabulated at <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/polls\/president-general\/2024\/national\/\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>For the sample beginning at the green line in the above figure, we have PredictIt odds.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/presodds_3apr24-2.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51737\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/presodds_3apr24-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"405\" height=\"463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/presodds_3apr24-2.png 405w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/presodds_3apr24-2-262x300.png 262w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 405px) 100vw, 405px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Source:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.predictit.org\/markets\/detail\/7456\/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election\">PredictIt<\/a>, accessed 4\/3\/2024. Biden (light blue), Trump (dark blue), RFK, Jr (not shown).<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/04\/presidential-election-polls-vs-prediction-markets\" title=\"3:23 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-04-03T15:23:25-07:00\">April 3, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/04\/presidential-election-polls-vs-prediction-markets\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today: Source: RealClearPolitics, accessed 4\/3\/2024. The spread between Trump and Biden has narrowed recently. Polls also tabulated at<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":220154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=220153"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":331160,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220153\/revisions\/331160"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/220154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=220153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=220153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=220153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}