{"id":219285,"date":"2024-04-02T01:24:55","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T01:24:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/02\/2023q4-gdp-advances-in-all-50-states-real-personal-income-declines-in-5\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:19:31","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:19:31","slug":"2023q4-gdp-advances-in-all-50-states-real-personal-income-declines-in-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/02\/2023q4-gdp-advances-in-all-50-states-real-personal-income-declines-in-5\/","title":{"rendered":"2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5"},"content":{"rendered":"

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From BEA<\/a>:<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> BEA<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nominal personal income rose in all states.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> BEA<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

However, what we care about is real personal income. I deflate using (nationwide) Chained CPI inflation (2.71% q\/q AR), and calculate Q4 q\/q AR growth.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1: <\/strong>Real personal income growth in 2023Q4, annualized. Source:<\/strong> BEA, BLS, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

Seven states exhibit negative growth in real personal income: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas and Hawaii.<\/p>\n

Coincident indices through January<\/strong><\/em> paint a different picture from that derived from GDP or real personal income.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> Philadelphia Fed<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a time series of the diffusion index for the 3 month growth rate of the Coincident Index.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1: Diffusion index for 3 month growth rate of coincident indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed<\/a>, March 2024.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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