{"id":218729,"date":"2024-03-30T17:35:06","date_gmt":"2024-03-30T17:35:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/30\/business-cycle-indicators-february-personal-income-consumption-and-january-mfg-trade-industry-sales\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:19:36","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:19:36","slug":"business-cycle-indicators-february-personal-income-consumption-and-january-mfg-trade-industry-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/30\/business-cycle-indicators-february-personal-income-consumption-and-january-mfg-trade-industry-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"Business Cycle Indicators: February Personal Income, Consumption, and January Mfg\/Trade Industry Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-51671\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Plus 3rd release of 2023Q3 GDP.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/recindex_feb24f.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51672\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/recindex_feb24f.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"820\" height=\"576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/recindex_feb24f.png 820w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/recindex_feb24f-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/recindex_feb24f-768x539.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/recindex_feb24f-624x438.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 820px) 100vw, 820px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (bold blue), from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (teal), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 3rd release (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q4 2nd release,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/marketintelligence\/en\/mi\/research-analysis\/us-monthly-gdp-index-for-october-2022.html\">S&amp;P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (3\/1\/<\/em><em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Consumption showed strength exceeding consensus, while personal income ex-transfers fell. January manufacturing and trade sales fell substantially in January. Combined with lackluster industrial production for February, one could see a slowdown in growth.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, the upward revision in Q4 GDP, along with measures of aggregate demand (final sales, and final sales to private domestic purchasers) suggests a lot of momentum in economic activity.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/03\/business-cycle-indicators-february-personal-income-consumption-and-january-mfg-trade-industry-sales\" title=\"9:41 am\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-03-30T09:41:31-07:00\">March 30, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/03\/business-cycle-indicators-february-personal-income-consumption-and-january-mfg-trade-industry-sales\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Plus 3rd release of 2023Q3 GDP. Figure 1:\u00a0Nonfarm Payroll employment from CES (bold blue), from Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (teal), civilian employment (orange), industrial<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":218730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218729"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=218729"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":332542,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218729\/revisions\/332542"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/218730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=218729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=218729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=218729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}