{"id":217887,"date":"2024-03-28T07:58:24","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T07:58:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/28\/larry-summers-thinks-ai-could-replace-almost-all-forms-of-labor-just-dont-expect-a-productivity-miracle-soon\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:19:47","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:19:47","slug":"larry-summers-thinks-ai-could-replace-almost-all-forms-of-labor-just-dont-expect-a-productivity-miracle-soon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/28\/larry-summers-thinks-ai-could-replace-almost-all-forms-of-labor-just-dont-expect-a-productivity-miracle-soon\/","title":{"rendered":"Larry Summers thinks AI could replace \u2018almost all’ forms of labor. Just don\u2019t expect a ‘productivity miracle’ soon"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Ever since OpenAI released its generative AI chatbot ChatGPT in November 2022, investors have flocked to companies with links to AI to try to profit from the world-changing technology. The hype has been so extreme that it sparked a debate<\/a> on Wall Street over whether investors are justified in their AI enthusiasm\u2014or if they\u2019re getting too excited.<\/p>\n

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Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who joined<\/a> ChatGPT developer OpenAI\u2019s board of directors late last year, weighed in on this debate at the Fortune Innovation Forum in Hong Kong on Thursday. \u201cThe right general rule with respect to technological innovation is that things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Unlike many proponents of AI<\/a>, Summers thinks AI\u2019s potential isn\u2019t going to fully reveal itself anytime soon. \u201cI don\u2019t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Summers said that crossing the \u201clast mile\u201d of technological development\u2014when a revolutionary technology turns into something that the general public can use\u2014usually takes longer than people hope. He cited what he termed the \u201cproductivity J curve,\u201d arguing that realizing productivity gains from a new idea takes years of investment, research and development.<\/p>\n

\u201cThink, for example, about autonomous vehicles. Tens, if not hundreds of thousands of workers have for years been devoting themselves to autonomous vehicles\u2026and as yet, there have been no chauffeurs or truck drivers or taxi drivers who have lost their job,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019ve had a bunch of labor being devoted to autonomous vehicles, and no output that is measured in the statistics.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the OpenAI board director is far from an AI skeptic.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf one takes a view over the next generation, this could be the biggest thing that has happened in economic history since the Industrial Revolution,\u201d he added. \u201cThis offers the prospect of not replacing some forms of human labor, but almost all forms of human labor.\u201d<\/p>\n

From building homes to making medical diagnoses, Summers predicted that AI will eventually be able to do nearly every human job, particularly white collar workers\u2019 \u201ccognitive labor.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

That will eventually make EQ, or emotional intelligence, more important than IQ.<\/p>\n

\u201cAI will substitute for a doctor making a difficult diagnosis\u2026before it substitutes for a nurse\u2019s ability to hold a patient\u2019s hand when the patient is frightened,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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