{"id":216552,"date":"2024-03-24T05:51:59","date_gmt":"2024-03-24T05:51:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/24\/conference-board-revises-2024-outlook-up\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:20:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:20:00","slug":"conference-board-revises-2024-outlook-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/24\/conference-board-revises-2024-outlook-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Conference Board Revises 2024 Outlook Up"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u2026to 1% y\/y [1]<\/a>. Their Leading Economic Indicator edges up slightly [2]<\/a>. Justin Ho discussed their brightening view on\u00a0 Friday\u2019s Marketplace<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, the Conference Board sees near zero growth in 2024Q2-Q3. This is consistent with the term spread based predictions<\/a> which show a high probability of recession in 2024Q2.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), CBO projection (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters (red), FT-Booth median forecast (brown inverted triangle), FOMC Summary of Economic Projections March 20 (open light green square), GDPNow of 3\/19 (light blue square), Conference Board as of 3\/21 (chartreuse), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Source: BEA 2024Q4 2nd release, Philadelphia Fed SPF, Booth School<\/a>,\u00a0Federal Reserve Board<\/a>,\u00a0Atlanta Fed<\/a> (3\/19), Conference Board<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The lower path for GDP vis a vis SPF or FT-IGM survey median is likely due in part to the depressed level of their Leading Economic Indicator which only turned slightly positive in February.<\/p>\n

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Source:<\/strong> Conference Board<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

The literature from the Conference Board indicates that LEI turning points lead GDP turning points by 7 months, so September 2024.<\/p>\n

The Conference Board forecasts a lower Fed funds probably as a consequence of the lower projected growth.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Fed funds rate (black), FOMC March 2024 SEP (light green squares), Conference Board forecast (chartreuse), CME modal forecast as of 3\/23 (sky blue). Source: FRB via FRED, FRB<\/a>, Conference Board<\/a>, CME<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

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[ad_1] \u2026to 1% y\/y [1]. Their Leading Economic Indicator edges up slightly [2]. Justin Ho discussed their brightening view on\u00a0 Friday\u2019s Marketplace. Interestingly, the Conference<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":216553,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216552"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216552"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216552\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":334576,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216552\/revisions\/334576"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216553"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}