Employment still outstripping the November Wisconsin DoR forecast, based on SPGMI national outlook.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), DoR forecast (tan +), implied from SPF forecast, 000\u2019s, s.a. Source: DWD, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue (Nov.), SPF and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The Wisconsin\u00a0Economic Outlook<\/em>\u00a0forecast from November was based on the slowdown at the national level built into the S&P Global Market Insights forecast from that month. To the extent that the slowdown has not materialized, it\u2019s not surprising that the forecast is being outperformed.<\/p>\n The SPF implied forecast is based on 2021M07-2024M01 regression in first differences, which indicates each one percentage point increase in US nonfarm payroll employment is associated with a 0.76 percentage point increase in Wisconsin employment (R2 of 0.41). (SPF forecast interpolated to to monthly via quadratic match.)<\/p>\n One can reasonably ask if the BLS\/DWD series is mismeasuring employment due to problems with the firm birth\/death model, etc. The Philadelphia Fed provides an alternative estimate based on QCEW data through Q3. This series is even higher than the official series.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (red), 000\u2019s, s.a. Source: DWD,Philadelphia Fed.<\/em><\/p>\n Through the end of 2023, the Philadelphia Fed series shows 2% y\/y growth, compared to 1.3% using the official series.<\/p>\n Finally, construction employment has slowed its torrid pace in February.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/wisc_emplpix_feb240.png\")
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