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The groundbreaking National Association of Realtors\u2019 $418 million settlement might not be so life-changing, if you take Ken Johnson\u2019s word for it. The former broker and current associate dean in the Florida Atlantic University\u2019s finance department, whose research focuses on real estate economics, told Fortune <\/em>that not much is going to change.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Last week, the National Association of Realtors, the country\u2019s largest trade association representing 1.5 million members, reached a settlement<\/a> over an alleged conspiracy to inflate commissions. It agreed to pay $418 million in damages across multiple antitrust lawsuits, including one that recently resulted in a $1.8 billion verdict<\/a>, finding the National Association of Realtors (among other brokerages) conspired to inflate commissions. \u201cI find it a major stretch to see how this was some sort of collusive behavior,\u201d Johnson said. As a broker for more than a decade, he and other brokers couldn\u2019t even agree on where to go to lunch, he said. Still, this is where we are, and as part of its settlement, NAR said it would prohibit offers of broker compensation on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), and require MLS users to enter into written contacts with buyers. It\u2019s subject to court approval and wouldn\u2019t take effect until this summer, in mid-July. NAR still denies any wrongdoing.\u00a0<\/p>\n Essentially, the industry-standard of a 5% to 6% commission was baked into a sellers\u2019 MLS listing, and the seller\u2019s agent and buyer\u2019s agent would split it. The settlement means those commissions can no longer get mixed into the listing. Some analysts suggest<\/a> the roughly $100 billion Americans pay in real estate commissions every year could lessen, and real estate agents\u2019 commissions could eventually drop about 30%. With lower commissions, which some real estate agents\u2019 livelihoods depend on, there\u2019s been some speculation that this could be the death knell for real estate agents. Johnson doesn\u2019t see that happening, \u201cnot at all,\u201d he said when asked by Fortune<\/em>. \u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s a shakeout.\u201d<\/p>\n Selling your home is expensive, Johnson said, and sometimes you have to go through three or four buyers, if not more, to close a deal. The successful agent gets the payout, and that\u2019s not something he sees changing with this settlement. \u201cBecause that underlying cost structure does not change, you\u2019re not going to see the commission on the buy-side change that much,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019ll be workarounds,\u201d he continued, \u201cAnd in a few years, we\u2019ll be talking about how this really didn\u2019t change.\u201d<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t mean there won\u2019t be a period of change, or some shifts. Once everything goes into effect, for the next few months, Johnson suspects some buyers will choose to go through their home-buying process unrepresented. They could have done that before, too, he said. Still, he doesn\u2019t think they\u2019ll necessarily be paying more or less, but they might not have the pricing information that they need to make a sound decision. So maybe for the next few months, people will try to do it all on their own, but they\u2019ll realize that having an agent helps a lot, Johnson said. Brokers and agents might try different things too, potentially offering discounted services, which they have done before. \u201cThese things have all been tried dozens of times in the past and there\u2019s nothing to change that now; they\u2019ll go try it again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n There could be fewer real estate agents, Johnson said, and that\u2019s fair to suggest, but this isn\u2019t the end for all real estate agents. There were more than 1.5 million real estate agents and brokers<\/a>, and as of last year, only 4.09 million existing homes sold<\/a>. That and a much more difficult market<\/a> than that of the pandemic\u2019s could have an impact.\u00a0<\/p>\n Buyers will always have questions; they\u2019ll want to know if they\u2019re paying too much, if it\u2019s a good deal, if they\u2019ll be able to resell it one day. Successful agents will have the answers, Johnson said.<\/p>\n \u201cI do think we\u2019re in for a little shake up, but in the end, we\u2019ll find a workaround all the way back around to where we\u2019re doing business very similar as we are today, until that underlying cost structure is changed,\u201d Johnson said.<\/p>\n Johnson called Fortune<\/em> from his hotel room, where he was staying for an annual meeting of the American Real Estate Society; his housing buddies seem to share a consensus that not much will change following the NAR settlement, he said. For the most part, he still expects sellers\u2019 agents and buyers\u2019 agents to split the commission, or share it\u2014if anything, it\u2019ll all be more upfront, which it should have been from the get go.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\nSubscribe to the CFO Daily newsletter to keep up with the trends, issues, and executives shaping corporate finance. Sign up<\/a> for free.<\/div>\n