The FT-Booth Macroeconomist Survey<\/a> was released today. GDP is slated to grow 2.1% in 2024, q4\/q4.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (bold black), CBO projection (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters (red), FT-Booth median forecast (brown inverted triangle), GDPNow of 3\/14 (light blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$. Source: BEA 2024Q4 2nd release, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook (February), Philadelphia Fed SPF, Booth School<\/a>, Atlanta Fed<\/a> (3\/14), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The median growth rate is 2.1%, with 10% lower\/upper bounds at 1.6% and 2.5%. This growth rate is faster than the 1.7% median rate in the February SPF. (I\u2019m apparently more pessimistic than the median, with my point estimate at 1.7%.)<\/p>\n What about recession? The modal response is now pushed to 2026 or later.<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Booth School<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n The recession start date has yet again been deferred, with modal response moved to 2026 or beyond. In the December survey, 42% indicated a start in 2025Q3 or beyond.<\/p>\n Finally, the respondents weighted in on r*:<\/p>\n Source:<\/strong> Booth School<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n The modal response is for r* to between 1%-2%, which is consistent with the estimates shown in this post<\/a>, and this post<\/a>. Only 3 people (out of 38) believed r* > 2% (which only the Lubik-Matthes estimate matches).<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/gdppix_jan24m.png\")
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