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<\/div>The damage from storms like Hurricane Harvey caused serious blackouts to the Texas power grid<\/p>\n
Mark Ralston\/AFP via Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n
Storm-proofing as little as 1 per cent of the power lines in an electricity grid could slash the chance of hurricane-induced blackouts by between fivefold and 20-fold, a simulation suggests. The demonstration, which took place in a simulated version of the Texas electricity grid, could help boost the resilience of power transmission systems worldwide.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe importance of various lines to the overall system only becomes apparent if we study the partially destroyed states of the grid that occur as the storm progresses,\u201d says Frank Hellmann<\/a> at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.<\/p>\n To identify those critical power transmission lines most in need of protection, Hellmann and his colleagues examined how the grid responds to widespread damage over time. They focused on large \u201cfailure cascades\u201d that occur after the initial storm damage: as power plants and transmission lines shut off to protect themselves from additional damage, they cause secondary power outages that can broaden the hurricane\u2019s impact.<\/p>\n The researchers simulated both wind-related storm damage \u2013 such as gusts damaging towers or taking down tree branches that fall onto transmission lines \u2013 and the resulting cascade of power outages that occurred in the Texas power grid during seven historical hurricanes<\/a> between 2003 and 2020.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Instead of trying to predict individual power line failures that can occur from a fallen tree or a lightning strike, the researchers assigned each line a probability of failure based on local wind speeds during each storm event. Their model consistently identified the same 20 critical lines where initial storm damage could trigger a cascade of secondary line failures \u2013 even when they reran the simulation with random variations in each line\u2019s probability of failure.<\/p>\n The experiment relied on a synthetic network model<\/a> of the Texas grid previously developed by a Texas A&M University team. It represents the grid\u2019s overall behaviour without being an exact replica of the actual physical grid. \u201cNone of the transmission lines in that grid are real lines,\u201d says Adam Birchfield<\/a> at Texas A&M University. \u201cSo to find out whether these results are valid for the real Texas grid, at a minimum the study would need to be run on a model of the real Texas grid.\u201d<\/p>\n Although independent researchers typically lack access to such models for security reasons, the power grid operators themselves could run this simulation on their own detailed grid models. Once they figure out which specific lines are weak points, they can weatherproof those crucial components of the grid.<\/p>\n Beyond Texas, such simulations could also model the grids of other locations that experience similar storm events. That \u201cmay offer opportunities to verify the model and results\u201d, says Chuanyi Ji<\/a> at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, who was not involved in the study.<\/p>\n The model of wind-related damage has its limits, acknowledges Hellmann. It does not account for additional possible damage from flooding, or for how power grid operators can take precautionary measures to prevent power outages<\/a>.<\/p>\n Still, the study\u2019s main takeaway is reinforced by having used a \u201cwide variety of scenarios\u201d to check the power failure probabilities in a realistic grid model, says Birchfield. \u201cI do think that hardening transmission corridors is an important component of increasing electric grid resilience,\u201d he says. \u201cAnd the paper demonstrates that a strategic choosing of transmission lines to harden is important to having the biggest impact on resilience.\u201d<\/p>\n Topics:<\/p>\n<\/section><\/div>\n