As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), DoR forecast (tan +), implied from SPF forecast, 000\u2019s, s.a. Source: DWD, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue (Nov.), SPF and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The Wisconsin Economic Outlook<\/em> forecast from November was based on the slowdown at the national level built into the S&P Global Market Insights forecast from that month. To the extent that the slowdown has not materialized, it\u2019s not surprising that the forecast is being outperformed.<\/p>\n The SPF implied forecast is based on 2021M07-2024M01 regression in first differences, which indicates each one percentage point increase in US nonfarm payroll employment is associated with a 0.76 percentage point increase in Wisconsin employment (R2 of 0.41). (SPF forecast interpolated to to monthly via quadratic match.)<\/p>\n See also Erik Gunn on Dennis Winters\u2019 assessment<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/wisc_emplpix_jan24.png\")
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