Senatorial candidate Hovde presents this picture.<\/p>\n
Source: Hovde.<\/a><\/p>\n I\u2019ll trust that the candidate\u2019s staff did the adding correctly, although I think the calculation is pretty meaningless. For instance, how does individual colony debt in 1776 get counted? More substantively, does it make sense to report nominal debt over such a long period?* I think maybe nominal debt divided by nominal GDP makes more sense.<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Gross Federal debt, as a percentage of GDP (blue). Note end-FY gross debt as a percentage of calendar year GDP. Orange shading denotes mostly Trump administration (FY2016-FY2020 debt). Source: US Treasury<\/a>, MeasuringWorth<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n It\u2019s a little hard to see what the recent context is with annual data (and in recent times, Federal debt held by the public, FRED series FYGFDPUN, makes more sense as a debt measure). Hence, I show the year-on-year percentage point changes in Federal debt held by public to GDP in Figure 2.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Year-on-Year percentage point change in Federal debt held by public to GDP ratio (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Orange dashed lines at beginning ond end of Trump administration, dated 2017Q1, 2020Q4. Source: US Treasury via FRED, BEA, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n The largest percentage point of GDP increase in Federal debt takes place under Mr. Trump\u2019s administration.<\/p>\n For an equally mendacious (and arithmetically incorrect) calculation, see discussion in this post<\/a>.<\/p>\n * CPI increased by 3501% since 1776 to 2023; nominal GDP is 141750 times what it was in 1790 (data from MeasuringWorth<\/a>).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Hovde_Debt-graph.png\")
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