Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. Here\u2019s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly GDP.<\/p>\n
Figure 1:<\/strong> Nonfarm Payroll employment (bold dark blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 2nd release (blue bars), GDPNow for 2024Q1 as of 2\/29 (lilac box), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q4 2nd release, Atlanta Fed, S&P Global Market Insights<\/a>\u00a0(nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (2\/1\/<\/em>2024 release), and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n GDPNow for Q1 is 3.0% (q\/q AR) as of today.<\/p>\n Here are some alternative indicators: heavy truck sales, coincident index, and vehicle miles traveled.<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Heavy truck sales (blue), coincident index (tan), vehicle miles traveled, s.a. using X-13 (green), all in logs, 2021M11=0. Source: Census, Philadelphia Fed, NHTSA via FRED, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n While vehicle miles traveled is trending sideways, it\u2019s not a reliable predictor or coincident indicator of recession (see this post<\/a>). Heavy truck sales \u2013 including the 12 month growth rate \u2013 is a good indicator. This measure is well outside of the recession zone. The coincident index from the Philadelphia Fed indicates no slowdown.<\/p>\n I\u2019m hard pressed to see an ongoing recession in the December-January data.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/recindic_jan24zz.png\")
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