{"id":208818,"date":"2024-02-29T02:04:27","date_gmt":"2024-02-29T02:04:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/29\/gdp-estd-gdo-gdp-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:21:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:21:28","slug":"gdp-estd-gdo-gdp-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/29\/gdp-estd-gdo-gdp-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP, Est\u2019d GDO, GDP+ | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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With the second release for GDP, we have the following picture of aggregate output:<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> GDP (black), GDPNow nowcast of 2\/27 for GDP (light blue square), GDP+ scaled to 2019Q4 (red), GDO (blue), GDI (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. 2023Q4 GDI, GDO based on assuming 2023Q4 enterprise surplus is the same as 2023Q3. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

The expenditure side measure of \u201cY\u201d (as I would tell my macro students) continues to be estimated above the income measure. Note that we really don\u2019t know GDI and GDO for 2023Q4, as enterprise surplus is unknown. I have guesstimated GDI and GDO assuming enterprise surplus is constant in nominal terms going from Q3 to Q4. Under this assumption, GDI continues to grow in Q4.<\/p>\n

What about final sales, a better measure of aggregate demand? This continues to grow as well.<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Final sales (blue, left scale), GDPNow nowcast of 2\/27 for final sales (light blue square, left scale), final sales to domestic private (tan, right scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

In Q4, final sales to private domestic purchasers (which some observers take as a better measure of momentum) is 2.8% q\/q AR, compared to GDP growth of 3.2%. Hence, momentum in aggregate demand seems strong. For Q1, GDPNow indicates the same growth rates for Q1\u2026<\/p>\n

As an aside, note there is no two consecutive decline in GDP+ in 2022H1, and only one quarter decline in GDI. Neither measure of final sales indicate a two-consecutive quarter decline.<\/p>\n

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[ad_1] With the second release for GDP, we have the following picture of aggregate output: Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow nowcast of 2\/27 for GDP<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":208819,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208818"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=208818"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208818\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":341476,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208818\/revisions\/341476"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/208819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=208818"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=208818"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=208818"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}