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2024 will be a\u00a0major\u00a0test for global democracy.\u00a0There are over 70 elections scheduled to take place, including roughly 40\u00a0for the\u00a0executive branch. But this year is significant\u00a0beyond the abnormally high\u00a0number of elections.<\/p>\n
The continued\u00a0broad-based support for populism at the global level\u00a0suggests\u00a0that\u00a0the 2024\u00a0elections could usher in a renewed cohort of populist, anti-establishment governments\u2013and\u00a0potentially, a\u00a0broader backsliding of democratic norms\u00a0across the globe. And this trend is fundamentally driven by economic and social disillusionment and an ongoing collapse of faith in the existing economic system.<\/p>\n
We recently conducted the latest iteration of our survey of\u00a0over 20,000\u00a0respondents which has measured the evolution of populist sentiment across 28 countries since 2016.<\/p>\n
The latest survey found that anti-establishment beliefs<\/a> rest on a sense of economic stagnation and are correlated with poor economic performance, inequality, and nostalgia about the past. The lynchpin of this system holds that the economic system is rigged against the average person. Our poll, for instance, found that 67% that the \u201ceconomy is rigged\u201d to benefit the elite.<\/p>\n Its logic goes something like this: Why, in a rich country, are there so many poor people? Because the elite have rigged the system in their favor. Where do citizens turn to? A strong leader who can take the country back from the rich and powerful, something that 63% of respondents agree their country needs. We often call this the \u201cCaudillo Syndrome<\/a>.\u201d This syndrome varies from country to country, but the logic is the same.<\/p>\n Our own analysis shows that it\u00a0strongly correlates<\/a> with different measures of democratic backsliding, corruption, and other forms of social and political disorganization.\u00a0Such social dysfunction can run the gambit from disrespecting norms of conduct to violations of constitutional principles to electoral interference.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Many other indicators\u00a0show\u00a0significant democratic backsliding<\/a> over the last decade or more.\u00a0Freedom House notes that global freedom declined for the 17th\u00a0consecutive year.\u00a0And Transparency International shows that the world<\/a> has made little progress against corruption. Our survey\u00a0demonstrates\u00a0that such slippage is rooted in popular support.<\/p>\n Emmanuel Macron\u00a0in France and Lula da Silva in Brazil both rode strong outsider waves but work within the system today.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The manifestation of more extreme forms of anti-establishment sentiment requires a strong political entrepreneur to stoke the flames. Take Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.\u00a0Or Javier Milei in Argentina.\u00a0Or Viktor Orban in Hungary. Or\u00a0Andrzej Duda\u00a0in Poland.\u00a0Ultimately, anti-system beliefs can lead to a variety of possible outcomes\u2013some more vanilla,\u00a0others more rabid.<\/p>\n In Mexico and Indonesia, populist sentiment has come down in recent years, while it is on the rise in the U.K. and South Africa. Past analysis suggests that elections themselves can tamp down popular discontent<\/a> with the system.\u00a0<\/p>\n The elections\u00a0this year\u00a0will be a test as to whether the anti-establishment will prevail. We are keeping our eyes on a number of elections.<\/p>\n In the U.S., former President Donald Trump will seek to dethrone the more\u00a0establishment candidate in incumbent Joe Biden.\u00a0This is a classic match-up pitting the establishment against the anti-establishment. The context is telling: 65% of Americans agree that \u201cour society is broken.\u201d<\/p>\n South Africa has one dominant\u00a0establishment party in the African National Congress (ANC). Since 2016, the belief that \u201cthe system is broken\u201d increased by 15 points (58% versus 73%). We expect that the high levels of populist sentiment will leave\u00a0cracks in the ANC facade. How this will play out specifically is uncertain.<\/p>\n Similarly, in the U.K., Labour will most probably prevail over the Tories\u2013two traditional parties. This is against a backdrop of rising populist sentiment: the belief that \u201csociety is in decline\u201d increased by 30 points between 2021 and 2023 (48% versus 78%). Even if the establishment prevails,\u00a0anti-system beliefs will\u00a0leave their mark, as evidenced by the rise of the Reform party in recent by-elections.<\/p>\n Anti-establishment\u00a0governments in Mexico,\u00a0Indonesia, and India are facing reelection in 2024. All three countries register a strong majority belief that the system in their country is broken, attitudes that serve as the substructure of the leaders\u2019 legitimacy. Although the final results haven\u2019t been announced yet, Indonesia\u2019s current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, has already won by a convincing margin<\/a>. A\u00a0sweep in these countries would strengthen the anti-system movement globally.<\/p>\n Ultimately, there will\u00a0be significant variability in anti-establishment\u00a0outcomes around the world.\u00a0However,\u00a0when\u00a0the final\u00a0tally\u00a0is taken,\u00a0will the forces of entropy and disorder win out?\u00a0Or will the establishment hold its own?\u00a0<\/p>\n We don\u2019t know.\u00a0But what we do know is that popular disillusionment remains in the hearts and minds of global citizens. This should put us all on high alert.<\/p>\n Clifford Young is the president of Ipsos. Chris Jackson is senior VP at Ipsos Public Affairs.<\/em><\/p>\n The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of\u00a0<\/em>Fortune.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\nAn illiberal belief system\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Anti-establishment figures\u00a0don\u2019t necessarily burn down the village after winning<\/h2>\n
There can be ebbs and flows to populist fervor<\/h2>\n
More must-read\u00a0commentary\u00a0published by\u00a0Fortune<\/em>:<\/h2>\n
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