From the Badger Institute<\/a>:<\/p>\n Will things improve? No: 47% expect the national economy to \u201cremain flat\u201d over the next six months, and 20% \u2014 one in five \u2014expect it to \u201cdecline,\u201d as in recession.<\/p>\n \u201cOptimism is falling,\u201d said WMC President Kurt Bauer, who quoted one captain of industry as saying, \u201cWe may not be in a recession, but we are certainly in something.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Here\u2019re some data, suggesting we\u2019re not in a recession as of December:<\/p>\n Figure 1:<\/strong> Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries, deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1]<\/a>, [2]<\/a>, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n What about through January? Here\u2019re the weekly indices from Baumeister\/Leiva-Leon\/Sims, for data releases through 1\/27 (for the states, through 2\/10 for the US):<\/p>\n Figure 2:<\/strong> Buameister\/Levia-Leon\/Sims WECI for US (black), WI (blue) ,TX (red), relative to trend y\/y, in %. Source: Baumeister\/Leiva-Leon\/Sims<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n Wisconsin growth is above trend, above Texas and US growth. So if the recession is coming to Wisconsin, it\u2019s (likely) not here yet.<\/p>\n Previous appearance of Badger Institute analysis in Econbrowser, here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
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