{"id":205926,"date":"2024-02-13T23:09:25","date_gmt":"2024-02-13T23:09:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/13\/inflation-expectations-down-econbrowser\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:21:52","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:21:52","slug":"inflation-expectations-down-econbrowser","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/13\/inflation-expectations-down-econbrowser\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation Expectations Down | Econbrowser"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Forecast errors from end of last year are essentially zero.<\/p>\n

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Figure 1:<\/strong> CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland Fed (pink), all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and,\u00a0Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters<\/a>,\u00a0NY Fed<\/a>,\u00a0Cleveland Fed<\/a>\u00a0and NBER.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Who was over-estimating inflation a year ago?<\/p>\n

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Figure 2:<\/strong> Forecast errors from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), Cleveland Fed (pink), all in %. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com<\/a>,\u00a0Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters<\/a>,\u00a0NY Fed<\/a>,\u00a0Cleveland Fed<\/a> , NBER and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n

While the SPF and Cleveland Fed measures underpredicted inflation through 2021-22, they are about on track as of November\/December. In contrast, the household measures overpredicted inflation.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

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