{"id":205692,"date":"2024-02-12T04:49:45","date_gmt":"2024-02-12T04:49:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/12\/why-i-dont-think-it-was-only-demand-shocks-that-drove-2022-23-inflation\/"},"modified":"2025-06-25T17:21:54","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T17:21:54","slug":"why-i-dont-think-it-was-only-demand-shocks-that-drove-2022-23-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/12\/why-i-dont-think-it-was-only-demand-shocks-that-drove-2022-23-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"Why I Don\u2019t Think It Was Only Demand Shocks that Drove 2022-23 Inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"post-51157\">\n\t\t\t\t<!-- .entry-header --><\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>From a lecture prepared for \u201cMacroeconomic Policy\u201d (Spring 2024):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/concise_supplyaugphillipscurve.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51158\" src=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/concise_supplyaugphillipscurve.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"896\" height=\"472\" srcset=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/concise_supplyaugphillipscurve.png 896w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/concise_supplyaugphillipscurve-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/concise_supplyaugphillipscurve-768x405.png 768w, https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/concise_supplyaugphillipscurve-624x329.png 624w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 896px) 100vw, 896px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Figure 1:<\/strong> Output gap (black, left scale), CBO projected output gap (pink, left scale), and PCE deflator y\/y inflation (teal, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2023Q4 advance, CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, Feb 2024, NBER, and author\u2019s calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The large increase in inflation seems quite outsized compared to the relatively small positive output gap.<\/p>\n<p>A more formal argument by Adam Shapiro (SF Fed) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/research-and-insights\/data-and-indicators\/supply-and-demand-driven-pce-inflation\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><!-- .entry-content --><\/p>\n<footer class=\"entry-meta\">\n\t\t\tThis entry was posted on <a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/02\/why-i-dont-think-it-was-only-demand-shocks-that-drove-2022-23-inflation\" title=\"6:00 pm\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2024-02-11T18:00:42-08:00\">February 11, 2024<\/time><\/a><span class=\"by-author\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/author\/menzie_chinn\" title=\"View all posts by Menzie Chinn\" rel=\"author\">Menzie Chinn<\/a><\/span><\/span>.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/footer>\n<p><!-- .entry-meta -->\n\t<\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/econbrowser.com\/archives\/2024\/02\/why-i-dont-think-it-was-only-demand-shocks-that-drove-2022-23-inflation\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] From a lecture prepared for \u201cMacroeconomic Policy\u201d (Spring 2024): Figure 1: Output gap (black, left scale), CBO projected output gap (pink, left scale), and<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":205693,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[155],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205692"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=205692"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205692\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":344214,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205692\/revisions\/344214"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/205693"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=205692"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=205692"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/michigandigitalnews.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=205692"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}